Across many Western democracies politics can often seem febrile at present. That’s perhaps not surprising given the impact of various global events such as the financial crisis, the pandemic, global conflict and, in the case of the UK, Brexit and the inevitable consequences of a Boris Johnson premiership with the ongoing chaos of a Conservative government that people in Scotland never wanted in the first place.
Amidst all this it is more important than ever to place our faith in a values driven, evidence based debate on Scotland’s future.
Last Thursday, Herald columnist Neil Mackay seemed to evoke the 1992 Bill Clinton campaign mantra “it’s the economy stupid” and to draw a sharp distinction between independence on the one hand and the economy, the cost of living and child poverty on the other.
That’s a false dichotomy. The core argument for independence is that decisions about Scotland should be taken by the people who live in Scotland.
It is through that decision-making power that better social and economic outcomes can be achieved. Where power lies, who holds it and what is done with it, is at the core of the type of society we are and the type of society we can be.
The fierce pre-election rhetoric between Labour and the Conservatives can’t mask a Westminster consensus which is taking Scotland ever more firmly in the wrong direction. It is our responsibility therefore, to set out an alternative future.
Ultimately of course it is for the people of Scotland to decide between those two futures but if we are, as Neil Mackay exhorts us, to “park independence” we will be showing indifference to what the evidence shows will be the escalating damage to Scotland if we remain under the control of Westminster.
I see the damage in the communities I represent. It’s patently obvious that the economy is central to the coming election. The cost-of-living crisis is biting hard and living standards for too many have stalled or gone into reverse. In such circumstances I can’t think of anything more irresponsible than to fail to make the case that fundamental change is required.
So let’s look at the evidence on the economy, the cost of living and child poverty.
Since the SNP took office, with the limited economic powers available to the Scottish Government, both productivity and GDP per head have grown faster here than in the UK as a whole.
Through measures such as abolishing prescription charges, free bus travel for those under age 22, a council tax freeze and free university tuition, we are helping with the cost of living.
READ NEIL MACKAY'S COLUMN HERE
And, again with limited decision-making powers, the Scottish Government has introduced a range of measures including the Scottish Child Payment, which has been described by Professor Danny Dorling of Oxford University, a policy expert on inequality, as the single most important child poverty measure introduced by any European country for 40 years.
Through the decisions we have made there are an estimated 100,000 fewer children in poverty in Scotland than would otherwise have been the case. That’s 100,000 fewer children facing the consequences of soul destroying and life-altering poverty.
Even with these successes, though, it is impossible to ignore the evidence of the profound harm that decisions taken at Westminster continue to wreak on Scotland. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has found destitution levels on the rise in the UK. The Resolution Foundation has reported that low growth has led to typical household incomes in the UK that are thousands of pounds behind comparator countries with a startling gap in living standards.
Devolution mitigates some of this in Scotland but it doesn’t make us immune.
And, given the agenda for no change being advanced by Keir Starmer it is fanciful to assume any different outcome any time soon if we continue to leave power in the hands of Westminster.
Both Labour and the Tories are signed up to the disaster of Brexit. Both are committed to keeping Scotland out of the EU and out of the European Single Market and Customs Union.
Brexit has already wiped billions from the Scottish economy, compared to EU membership, and independent estimates show the economic hit is set to get worse still.
That isn’t just felt in people’s own pockets but so too it means there will be less public money available for the NHS and other public services.
Brexit has also worsened the cost-of-living crisis – pushing up food prices.
And when it comes to child poverty, Labour and the Tories – just as with Brexit – are in agreement that the two-child cap on benefits should remain. At the same time, they also both believe that the cap on bankers’ bonuses should be lifted.
But it is important to remember that this is not just about individual Westminster policy decisions or even Brexit: it’s about a failed UK economic model, endorsed by both Labour and the Tories.
The Scottish Government is currently updating the prospectus for independence. As part of that prospectus we’ve published evidence looking at how the UK compares to independent countries that are like Scotland.
The findings are clear and consistent. Those comparable Northern European independent countries, such as Ireland, Denmark, Norway and Finland are wealthier, fairer, more productive and happier than the UK.
No-one is suggesting an independent Scotland is going to match that performance overnight or that there won’t be challenges to overcome. But given the economic failure of the UK we cannot go into this election “parking” the case for independence.
The case for independence is the case for hope and optimism, and how best to deal with the systemic economic failures inflicted on Scotland and to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. There is of course a clear democratic mandate to make that case and given its central importance to improving people’s lives, it is one we will continue to make with energy and enthusiasm.
Jamie Hepburn is Minister for Independence
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