Hugh Young
In recent years the emerging markets have looked vulnerable at times, but not to this extent. So what’s going on?
Investors are mainly concerned about China. What’s changed has been their confidence in the ability of Chinese policymakers to manage the slowdown that has sapped global demand.
That confidence was first shaken when the stock market bubble burst. This should have come as no surprise since most yuan-denominated shares traded in Shenzhen and Shanghai do a poor job of reflecting corporate earnings. Rather, they are a reflection of the messy interaction between government market manipulation and the on-off speculative appetite of China’s retail investors.
However, investors were convinced policymakers would do whatever it took to support the so-called A-share market. What we’ve witnessed instead are a series of heavy-handed policy moves, each one more impotent than the last. It now seems Beijing has all but given up.
Next came the shock of a yuan devaluation. Depending on your point of view, this was either a positive sign that China remains committed to the goal of currency liberalisation, or a desperate attempt to boost flagging exports.
Whatever the intention of Chinese policymakers, Asia is feeling the effects. Growth is sluggish and corporates struggle to lift earnings. Central banks across the region may be tempted to follow Beijing and weaken their own currencies in an attempt to maintain export competitiveness.
Asia’s vulnerability is particularly bad news given the fragility exhibited elsewhere, especially within the developed markets – Greece always seems one loan away from being kicked out of the Eurozone, while stimulus policies in Japan have not translated into sustainable growth.
With the Federal Reserve all but having committed to an interest rate rise soon, this will put unwanted pressure on the US central bank in the shape of a rising dollar and downward pressure on prices.
We may even see an earnings recovery as soon as next year.
In the face of all this, investors are right to be worried. Prices have been supported by liquidity and confidence in policymakers’ judgement, not by corporate fundamentals.
On the other hand, we feel reasonably comfortable and even vindicated by the recent selloff. If prices start to reflect fundamentals more closely there will be opportunities.
Asia, and more so emerging markets, looks cheap compared to Europe and the US. It seems perverse that money is flowing away from the developing world especially when you realise that corporate earnings there have stabilised for the most part (if you exclude the commodity companies). We may even see an earnings recovery as soon as next year.
Rising risk aversion is in part driven by currency weakness, but this is as much a reflection of a strong dollar as an indicator of potential problems at home. Our view therefore is that currencies may exaggerate market weakness in the short term, but they do not play a significant part in equity performance in the long run.
Comparisons being made with the Asian crisis nearly 20 years ago make no sense to us.
We should add that the present situation is nothing like the dotcom crash, Sars, or most recently the global financial crisis. One or two countries are without question vulnerable to capital outflows which will put pressure on debt servicing and currencies. But these are the exceptions and we do not see scope for contagion because the differences within emerging markets are better understood today. Comparisons being made with the Asian crisis nearly 20 years ago make no sense to us.
So we continue to have great confidence in the quality of our stock selections as well as the long term story that underpins Asia. Our experience suggests that none of what’s happening is particularly new or surprising.
Hugh Young is managing director of Aberdeen Asset Management Asia
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules here