The world economy is at “an important juncture, with tensions growing in different areas” Standard Life Investments has said.
But it does not expect further shocks in China or renewed falls in commodity prices.
Jeremy Lawson, SLI’s chief economist, says: “We continue to see a moderate global expansion into 2016, supporting modest corporate earnings growth outside the energy and materials sectors. Our view remains that a widespread or systemic emerging market financial crisis is unlikely, but the pressure on a number of large developing economies will not disappear quickly.”
He expects the global economic growth rate to edge up marginally, but remain below its historic trend.
Writing in the fund managers’ quarterly economic outlook, Mr Lawson says: “At the epicentre of the crisis, in China, a hard landing is not our central scenario as we expect extra fiscal stimulus, but the transition to a new growth model will remain bumpy and unfriendly for commodity producers. More deceleration in growth could lie ahead and the Chinese currency is likely to weaken moderately against the dollar.
“Our forecast assumes no further falls in commodity prices and stabilisation in the recent levels of financial stress. If stress builds further then there is a large risk that growth will not rebound, through its effect on consumer and business sentiment, when monetary policy easing in the developed economies will quickly come back on to the agenda.”
SLI says investors need to assume “low returns on bond, cash and equity prices over the remaining part of this business cycle”, and Mr Lawson concludes: “Listed equities in particular are sensitive to developments in global activity as they tend to have larger external exposures than do economies as a whole. Moving up the capital structure towards selected credit may have advantages in this environment.”
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