One of Scotland's leading experts in corporate financial distress has warned that an improving economy in 2015 carries a "counter-intuitive" risk this year for companies that survived the depths of the long recession.
Matt Henderson's research for the Sunday Herald, from analysis of official UK statistics, also reveals that despite reports of declining numbers of business insolvencies, the number of Scottish companies suffering liquidation, receivership, administration and company voluntary arrangements actually rose by 13.4% in the 12 months to September 2014, in a surprise reverse of a strong declining trend.
Henderson, an Edinburgh-based restructuring partner for accountants Johnston Carmichael, said: "You would think that the worst time for companies is going to be as we bump along the bottom, but actually you are most vulnerable when you are ascending and thinking that the worst is behind you.
"That is why it is important to caution companies that believe they are past the worst and are congratulating themselves for having survived the recession. Because as things get better they really have to get plans in place as to how they are going to get the best out of the recovery, and that means making sure that they have access to the capital to do it."
Henderson, who specialises in advising companies on optimising their capital structure to avoid or recover from "distress situations", listed some of the perils of economic recovery as the need to carry additional stock, the need to invest in new plant and equipment, the need hire new people, and the requirement to finance an expanded sales ledger.
"What may seem like the fantastic news of increased turnover and increased optimism ironically creates an issue if you are not prepared to finance it," he said. "Access to growth capital is absolutely essential. If your wings are clipped and you can't take advantage of the opportunities, then you can rest assured that your competitors will.
"Those competitors who have got the structure right, who have restructured themselves in such a way that they are able to grow and have the capital and the human resource in place, they are the companies that will be successful and will do the best out of the recovery."
Henderson is advising firms to consider alternatives to overdraft financing, which he said was an "inappropriate capital structure if you are anticipating the need to expand."
"Restructuring should involve looking at what the underlying business is doing and asking yourself what it is you are actually funding. Are there alternative sources of finance that are more appropriate to the asset? For example, if you are a haulage company needing to finance a fleet of vehicles, rather than just adding that to your overdraft, you could look at a lease term that coincides with the life of the vehicles."
Henderson also suggested that struggling businesses look at such measures such as as "invoice discounting", available from specialist financiers, which offers prompter - but reduced - payments of invoices where normal payment terms of 90 days might endanger a company's ability to continue trading.
With about 25 years' experience in insolvency and corporate recovery work, Henderson said Scottish family business are often particularly vulnerable to avoidable distress. "We often see situations where businesses are fantastic at what they do - the best hoteliers or the best manufacturers or whatever - but they lack financial discipline," he said.
He said a possible interest-rate rise in the latter part of 2015 was likely to see a wave of corporate insolvencies as "companies that are just barely servicing their debt burden at the moment will find it difficult".
Data on corporate insolvencies released in October shows there were 209 notices of Scottish registered companies becoming insolvent or entering receivership in the second quarter of 2014.
This is a 16.4% decrease on the last quarter and a 22% decrease on the same quarter in 2013, though the figure did not include liquidations, receiverships, administrations and CVOs, which the figures compiled by Johnston Carmichael did.
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