Scotland's Chief Statistician yesterday released the latest estimates of the Scottish cereal and rape harvest that confirm Scotland's 2014 cereal harvest is likely to be the largest in 20 years.

 

In total, around 3.2m tonnes of cereals are expected this year, an increase of 384,000t on 2013. This represents a recovery from the 2012 crop year, when decreased production was caused by poor growing conditions and a prolonged wet harvest.

The figures show that the latest increase is due to an estimated 13% improvement in overall cereal yields over the last year. Overall yields are estimated at an average of 7t per hectare (ha), ranging from 8.1t/ha for spring barley and oats, to 9.1t/ha for wheat. Average oilseed rape yields are estimated at 4t/ha. The total area of land sown has increased by 4,000ha.

This has been a good year for cropping despite occasionally difficult conditions. Harvesting began early and progressed quickly, with more consistency in yields across Scotland. There is some disparity between the north and the south of the country, after remnants of Hurricane Bertha hit the north. The longer term trend of improving yields continues, with the average cereal yield for the last 10 years 7% higher than in the previous decade.

Wheat and winter barley have seen the largest estimated rises in production, both increasing by around 52 and 46% respectively. Around 990,000t of wheat, up from 650,000t, and around 400,000t of winter barley, up from around 280,000 are expected. Spring barley production is stable at around 1.7m tonnes, despite a fall in grown areas. Oats are the only major cereal crop to see considerably reduced production, down 18% from 190,000 to 150,000t, following an 18% increase in 2013 when oats replaced wheat and oilseed rape in part of the country.

These final estimates are 62,000t (2%) lower than initial estimates. Increases in spring barley and oilseed rape production have been revised down. Increases in winter barley and wheat have been revised up, and a greater decrease in oat production is now being estimated.

The oversupply situation had led to depressed prices, with lows of nearly £100/t in September, but concerns over Russia's ability to export grain and global weather events have driven LIFF wheat futures up to close on £140/t recently.

Market round-up

United Auctions sold 104 store heifers at Stirling on Wednesday to a top of 267p per kg and an average of 225p (+9.2p on the week), while 103 store, beef-bred bullocks peaked at 250p and levelled at 225.1p (-1.1p). Seventeen store, B&W bullocks sold to 170.2p and averaged 163.2p.

In the rough ring, 98 cows averaged 116.7p.