UK industrial production fell sharply for a second consecutive month in November, it has emerged, fuelling worries that the overall economy may have gone into reverse in the fourth quarter of last year.
And fears of renewed recession were stoked further yesterday when the influential Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revealed its leading indicator for the UK economy had fallen further.
Meanwhile, a survey published today by accountancy firm BDO concludes that the "UK economy stands on the precipice of contraction, with businesses' turnover expectations falling further in December".
Data published yesterday by the Office for National Statistics showed that UK industrial production dropped by a further 0.6% month-on-month in November on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This decline followed a 1% month-on-month drop in October.
Within industrial production, manufacturing output dropped by 0.2% month-on-month in November. This left manufacturing output 0.6% lower than in November 2010 – the first year-on-year drop since January 2010.
Elsewhere within industrial production, oil and gas extraction showed a monthly drop of 2.1% in November. And energy supply was down 2.2% month-on-month.
Industrial production in November was down 3.1% on the same month of 2010.
The OECD revealed its composite leading indicator for the UK had fallen from 98.82 in October to 98.38 in November. This was the 10th consecutive monthly fall.
The OECD's leading indicators are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend.
Howard Archer, chief UK economist at consultancy IHS Global Insight, said: "A further drop in the OECD leading indictor for the UK in November maintains serious concerns the economy is headed back into recession."
Mr Archer added: "A probable sharp decline in industrial production in the fourth quarter obviously fuels concern that the overall economy contracted, although it needs to be borne in mind that industrial production only accounts for 15.4% of GDP (gross domestic product).
"The signs are that construction output saw some growth in the fourth quarter, but the crucial factor will be how well services output fared."
Mr Archer believes the performance of services is "difficult to call". He pointed to ONS data showing services output fell 0.7% month-on-month in October, but observed that surveys from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply pointed to "decent expansion" of this dominant sector in December and to overall growth in the fourth quarter.
He added: "Our current view is that GDP was essentially flat in the fourth quarter. "
Samuel Tombs, UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said: "While last week's CIPS surveys suggested that the overall economy might have avoided recession in the fourth quarter, the softer tone of the official data suggests that prospect is still very much alive. In addition, even if the economy avoids a contraction in Q4, we still think that GDP will drop by 0.5% or so in 2012."
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