THE belief that the first rise in UK base rates is now unlikely to come before next year has been reinforced significantly by minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee's September meeting.

Minutes of the Bank of England committee's September 3 and 4 meeting, published yesterday, signalled the MPC majority is in no hurry to increase base rates from their record low of 0.5 per cent.

The minutes show that, for a second consecutive month, seven MPC members voted for no change in benchmark interest rates, while two, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale, pushed for an immediate quarter-point rise.

The seven-strong majority, including Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, believed there remained insufficient evidence of prospective inflationary pressures to justify an immediate rise in base rates, which have been at 0.5 per cent since March, 2009.

Annual UK consumer prices index inflation has been below the Bank of England's two per cent target in every month this year, and figures on Tuesday showed it had fallen from 1.6 per cent in July to 1.5 per cent in August.

Among the factors cited by the seven MPC members voting to hold rates were signs in surveys of a likely easing of UK expansion, softer economic data from the eurozone, and weak wage growth.

Explaining the stance of these members, the minutes state: "A premature tightening in monetary policy might leave the economy vulnerable to shocks, with the scope for any stimulus that subsequently became necessary being limited... In addition, increases in bank rate well ahead of any prospective pick-up in wage and income growth risked increasing the vulnerability of highly-indebted households."

The minutes show the MPC majority noted falling import prices. The committee cited opinion polls indicating greater support for Scottish independence as a likely factor in a depreciation of around 1.5 per cent in the sterling effective exchange rate index since its previous monthly meeting. But MPC members noted the level of this index was still 12 per cent above its early 2013 trough.

MPC members believed it probable that weak average earnings growth might partly reflect changes in the composition of the workforce.

The minutes state: "Wage inflation... continued to be weak. It was probable that it had recently been depressed by changes in the composition of employment towards individuals with lower wage levels, such as those with fewer qualifications or workers with less tenure."

They cite the belief of external MPC members Mr Weale and Mr McCafferty that an early rate rise would "facilitate the committee's aspiration that rises in Bank Rate should only be gradual".

Detailing the rationale of these members, the minutes state: "The economy continued to grow at a pace consistent with the rapid absorption of slack, and the signs of any easing in growth in Q4 were as yet only tentative.

"Survey evidence of tightening in the labour market suggested wage growth might pick up quite sharply as slack was absorbed.

"Since monetary policy could be expected to operate only with a lag, it was desirable to anticipate labour market pressures by raising Bank Rate in advance."

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at consultancy IHS Global Insight, said: "There seemed little sign in the September minutes that any of the other seven MPC members was on the verge of voting for a rate hike."

He added: "We currently expect the Bank of England to first raise interest rates from 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent in February but there looks to be a very real possibility that the bank could delay acting until the second quarter despite two MPC members currently favouring an immediate rate hike."

Mr Archer believed that, in any case, MPC members would have been wary of moving to raise rates ahead of today's independence referendum.

He said: "It is also likely most MPC members would have been wary of raising interest rates just before the Scottish independence vote due to the potential near-term negative impact that a Yes vote could have on the UK economy through increasing uncertainty. Indeed, if the Scots do vote for independence, it could well markedly delay any interest rate hike."

Samuel Tombs, senior UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said: "The minutes of September's MPC meeting struck a fairly dovish tone, while the continued weakness of average earnings growth has bolstered the case for keeping interest rates on hold over the coming months."