SCOTLAND's economic performance in the year to March is much poorer than that UK-wide, even though the renewed recession is shallower north of the Border, latest official data show.
And Scotland is further adrift of its peak in economic output before the "Great Recession" of 2008/09 than the UK as a whole.
Comparing the year to March 31 with the prior 12 months, Scottish Government data published yesterday show gross domestic product was up just 0.2% in Scotland but by 0.6% UK-wide on the "gross value added" measure.
Scottish economic output in the first quarter was nearly 4% adrift of its pre-2008/09 recession peak. The UK as a whole was about 3.6% adrift of its peak output ahead of the Great Recession.
Scotland re-entered recession in the opening three months of 2012 with a second straight quarterly decline in output of 0.1%. However, this renewed recession is not as deep as that UK-wide. UK GDP, on the gross value added measure, fell 0.3% in the final three months of last year and by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2012.
However, economists were alarmed by a 6.9% quarter-on-quarter plunge in Scottish construction output in the first three months of 2012, and called for action to boost infrastructure projects. UK-wide construction output fell 4.9% in the first quarter.
On a more positive note, the manufacturing sector performed much better in Scotland than in other parts of the UK in the first quarter. Manufacturing output rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Scotland but fell 0.3% UK-wide.
Scottish mechanical engineering output grew 2.5% in the first quarter. Overall Scottish engineering output rose by 0.2%, even though the electrical and instrument engineering category, which takes in the key electronics industry, declined by 1.3%.
The refined petroleum, chemical, and pharmaceutical products manufacturing sub-sector enjoyed a 5.5% leap in output in the first quarter. But food, beverages and tobacco saw a 1.4% dip in output.
Stripping out oil and gas extraction, to give what some economists consider a better underlying measure, Scotland's underperformance of the UK as a whole since the end of the 2008/09 recession is more stark.
On this basis, Scottish output in the first quarter was 3.8% adrift of its pre-2008/09 recession high. The UK as a whole is only 2.9% behind its corresponding peak.
Comparing the year to March 31 with the prior 12 months, GDP on this basis was up by just 0.3% in Scotland but by 0.9% UK-wide.
Output of the dominant services sector grew by 0.2% both in Scotland and UK-wide in the first quarter.
Business services and finance performed more strongly in Scotland, with output in this sub-sector rising by 0.4% in Scotland but falling by 0.3% UK-wide.
Professor Brian Ashcroft, emeritus professor of economics at Strathclyde University and economics editor of the Fraser of Allander Institute commentary, said it was a "cause for concern" that Scottish GDP had been broadly 4% below its pre-2008/09 recession peak since the second quarter of 2010.
Noting Scottish construction output had fallen back close to its trough of late 2009, Mr Ashcroft added: "That is exceptionally worrying because dips in construction output are harbingers of recession."
Noting Chancellor George Osborne's new £40 billion scheme to underwrite UK infrastructure projects did not involve any new public money, and pointing out there was no guarantee the private sector would participate, he added: "We are languishing, without policies to deal with it."
While welcoming Scotland's manufacturing performance, Mr Ashcroft said of the overall GDP data: "There is not much silver in the cloud."
Jeremy Peat, director of The David Hume Institute economic think-tank, described the fall in construction output as "dire".
He warned Scotland would be "seriously disadvantaged" over the medium to long term by failure to "get infrastructure moving", and did not believe Mr Osborne's proposals would have much effect.
Mr Peat said: "Scotland should be looking seriously at how to enhance infrastructure spending, which involves getting the private sector re-engaged."
Mr Ashcroft noted that the fall in UK output during the Great Recession had been revised down to 6.3%, which was now much closer to the drop of 5.8% recorded in Scotland.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article