SCOTLAND'S economy is likely to have grown at an above-trend rate of about 0.6% in the third quarter, a leading expert has estimated in the wake of figures showing the UK as a whole achieved expansion of 0.8%.
The UK economic growth, unveiled in figures published yesterday by the Office for National Statistics, is the fastest quarterly expansion recorded since the April to June 2010 period.
However, even though this growth followed expansion of 0.7% in the second quarter on the basis of the ONS numbers, gross domestic product in the three months to September was 2.5% adrift of its peak in the first quarter of 2008. From this peak to the trough in activity in 2009, UK economic output dropped 7.2%.
In contrast to the UK, countries such as the US and Germany regained their pre-recession levels of output some time ago.
Scottish gross domestic product figures for the third quarter will be published in January.
Contemplating the likely rate of GDP growth in Scotland in the three months to September, Brian Ashcroft, emeritus professor of economics at the University of Strathclyde, said: "The recent position has been that Scotland has, apart from the odd quarter, done slightly less well than the UK.
"I think that is likely to be the case again. I would have thought not 0.8%, but probably 0.6% or something like that. I think that is the likelihood. It is not certain. It depends a lot on what is going on in particular sectors. That would seem to be the most likely outcome, given the most recent statistics."
Growth of 0.6% in the third quarter would match the rate of expansion north of the Border in the three months to June, which was revealed in figures published on October 16 by the Scottish Government, and equate to an annualised rate of 2.4%. This would be above a longer-term annual trend rate of growth for Scotland of about 2%.
The UK's historical average annual rate of growth was put at about 2.75% by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in a recent speech.
Noting the economy north of the Border had suffered a slightly less steep fall in output during the 2008/09 recession, Mr Ashcroft added: "Scotland is part of the United Kingdom and clearly has recovered broadly similarly to the United Kingdom."
Mr Ashcroft, economics editor of the closely-watched Fraser of Allander Institute commentary, hailed the UK GDP growth as "good news".
He said: "Growth is the fastest for some time. The economy does appear to be recovering now."
But he added: "The crucial issue of course is, 'Will it be sustained?'...'What is the basis for this being sustained?'."
Mr Ashcroft said Fraser of Allander would address this question of sustainability in its impending economic commentary.
Yesterday's figures from the ONS showed that UK GDP in the third quarter was 1.5% higher than in the same period of last year.
The UK manufacturing sector expanded by 0.9% in the third quarter, matching its growth rate in the three months to June, the figures showed. The dominant services sector posted third-quarter growth of 0.7%.
Construction output rose by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September.
And the overall 0.8% rise in GDP in the three months to September was achieved in spite of a 6.8% quarter-on-quarter fall in energy supply, amid warm and dry weather.
Samuel Tombs, UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said: "The preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that the UK economy is currently enjoying a period of healthy and well-balanced growth."
However, he added: "In the grand scheme of things, the UK's recovery remains unimpressive. GDP is still 2.5% below its pre-recession peak, when at the same stage in recoveries in the 20th century, GDP was between 6% and 13% above its former peak. What's more, further falls in real pay, the fiscal squeeze and the dormant state of the eurozone economy seem likely to prevent the recovery from gathering pace."
Mr Tombs nevertheless observed, with employment growing, confidence returning and productivity still well below its potential, "it seems unlikely the recovery will fade significantly".
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