THE value of Scottish retail sales in August was down on the same month of 2013, in stark contrast to a significant year-on-year rise in the UK as a whole, industry figures have revealed.
David McCorquodale, head of accountancy firm KPMG's UK retail sector practice, cited greater confidence south of the Border than in Scotland about the recovery of the housing market and wage rates as a factor in the differing performances.
The industry figures, published today by the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) and KPMG, show sales value north of the Border in August was down 0.3 per cent on the same month of last year. Figures last week from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed the value of sales in the UK as a whole last month was up 2.7 per cent on August 2013.
However, the August outturn for Scotland was not as bad as the 1.8 per cent year-on-year drop in retail sales value north of the Border in July.
The SRC figures show that, over the three months to August, the value of retail sales in Scotland was down 1.1 per cent on the same period of 2013. In the UK as a whole, sales value in the latest three months was up 1.5 per cent on the same period of 2013, according to the BRC figures.
Mr McCorquodale said: "The UK is showing 2.6 percentage points more growth than the Scottish market, which is probably a reflection of increased confidence in the recovery of the housing market and wage rates in the south when compared to Scotland. Retailers will hope that wage rate inflation and consumer confidence will rise before interest rates in order to loosen the Scottish purse strings."
Figures published yesterday by the Office for National Statistics showed that UK house prices in July were up by 11.7 per cent on the same month of last year. Overall, UK house prices are rising at their fastest annual pace in seven years. However, the year-on-year rate of increase in house prices is much greater in England than Scotland.
According to the ONS figures, house prices in Scotland in July were up 7.6 per cent on the same month of 2013. In England, the year-on-year rise in house prices in July was 12 per cent.
UK base rates have been at 0.5 per cent since March 2009. Economists are increasingly forecasting the first rise in benchmark interest rates will not come until next year, with annual UK consumer prices index inflation below the Bank of England's two per cent target in every month this year and average earnings continuing to fall in real terms.
The SRC figures show that food retailers remain under severe pressure in Scotland, as they do in other parts of the UK. Many households are continuing to struggle with the cost of living, against the backdrop of a protracted fall in real incomes.
Food sales in Scotland in the three months to August were, by value, down two per cent on the same period of last year. The value of non-food sales in the latest three months was down by 0.3 per cent on the period from June to August 2013.
The value of food sales north of the Border in August was down 1.8 per cent on the same month of last year. Non-food sales value last month was up 0.9 per cent on August 2013.
The SRC estimated that, if online sales channels had been included in the figures, the value of non-food sales in Scotland in August would have been up 2.8 per cent on the same month of last year. This estimate involves an extrapolation of BRC figures for online sales in the UK as a whole.
SRC director David Lonsdale said of the August sales figures: "For the second month in succession, a favourable rise in footfall on Scotland's high streets and shopping centres hasn't translated into an increase in actual sales."
Mr Lonsdale noted the strength of clothing and footwear sales in August, declaring the new autumn ranges were proving popular.
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