THE UK's dominant services sector enjoyed a modest acceleration of growth in March according to a survey which provided some cheer amid the economic gloom but failed to dispel fears of triple-dip recession.
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's survey, published yesterday, came hard on the heels of gloomier reports from CIPS this week on manufacturing and construction activity in March.
UK gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3% in the final three months of 2012. A further drop in the opening quarter of 2013 would mean the UK had suffered its third recession since 2008 as the Coalition Government's austerity programme bites.
Martin Beck, UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said of CIPS's service sector survey: "On the basis of past experience, March's reading remains consistent with only tepid growth in services sector output. What's more, a weighted average of the three CIPS surveys points to the economy doing no better than stagnating in Q1. A triple-dip recession can still not be ruled out."
Chris Williamson, chief economist at CIPS survey compiler and financial information company Markit, calculated CIPS's surveys were consistent with a "mere 0.1%" increase in UK gross domestic product in the first quarter.
While noting this calculation suggested the UK had avoided triple-dip recession by the "narrowest of margins", Mr Williamson warned: "The weakness of private sector growth signalled by the PMI (purchasing managers' index) data in the first quarter means that a flat GDP picture or even a decline could be seen if Government sector output falls."
He said this was a "far from satisfactory" economic performance. However, Mr Williamson observed "anecdotal evidence from survey contributors indicated poor weather caused disruptions to many firms in recent months".
CIPS's business activity index for services rose from 51.8 in February to 52.4 in March on a seasonally-adjusted basis, moving further above the level of 50 deemed to separate expansion from contraction and signalling the fastest pace of growth for this sector of the economy since last August.
The survey also showed faster growth of incoming new business for services firms. But the rate of increase of employment in services slowed to a weak rate in March.
Howard Archer, chief UK economist at consultancy IHS Global Insight, said: "The survey significantly lifts hopes that expansion in the dominant services sector in the first quarter was more than enough to offset probable contraction in both industrial production and construction output, thereby preventing a further GDP drop and triple-dip recession.
"We expect the economy to have squeezed out GDP growth of 0.1% to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter."
However, he cautioned: "There is obviously major uncertainty over what the outcome will be."
UK manufacturing activity fell for a second consecutive month in March, amid further falls in total new orders, incoming export business, and employment, according to CIPS's latest survey of this sector on Tuesday.
CIPS's latest report on the construction sector, published on Wednesday, showed the steepest monthly decline in UK civil engineering activity since October 2009 in March.
Overall, UK construction output fell for a fifth consecutive month, according to CIPS, with the rate of decline easing only slightly from February's pace.
A survey published yesterday by Bank of Scotland signalled that the rate of decline of Scottish companies' overall turnover eased in the three months to February, but export activity declined at a faster pace.
This survey pointed to a continuing decline in the overall turnover of Scottish services companies, albeit at a slower pace. It pointed to very modest growth in turnover of companies in the Scottish production sector.
The Office for National Statistics is due to release first-quarter UK GDP data later this month.
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