UK manufacturing output surged by a much stronger-than-forecast 1.9% in June, the sharpest monthly rise since July last year, official figures show.
This jump in manufacturing output, which was well ahead of the City's forecast of a 0.9% rise, followed a 0.7% fall in May and a 0.2% dip in April. It meant that manufacturing output in the second quarter was up 0.7% on the opening three months of 2013.
The seasonally-adjusted figures, published yesterday by the Office for National Statistics, continue a run of firmer economic data in recent weeks.
ONS figures published late last month showed UK gross domestic product rose by 0.6% in the second quarter. However, even after this rise, GDP was 3.3% adrift of its peak in the first quarter of 2008, ahead of the Great Recession.
Manufacturing output remains well adrift of its early 2008 levels, and was higher in 2011 than now.
Broader industrial production, which includes mining and quarrying, oil and gas extraction, and electricity, gas and water supply as well as manufacturing output, rose by 1.1% month-on-month in June. This left it 1.2% higher than in June 2012 - the strongest year-on-year rise since January 2011.
Oil and gas extraction fell 1.1% month-on-month in June, and was down 13.3% on a year earlier.
The ONS notes oil and gas extraction has declined over the last 13 years as many of the North Sea reserves "have become more difficult to extract".
It points out extraction equipment has aged, with rigs requiring more extensive repairs and maintenance in recent years.
Manufacturing output in June was up 2% on the same month of 2012 - the sharpest year-on-year rise since June 2011. However, manufacturing output in June 2012 was depressed by the extra bank holiday for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.
Samuel Tombs, UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said: "June's surge in industrial production was the most convincing sign yet that the sector is sharing in the recovery already under way in the rest of the economy. While industry will struggle to replicate June's strong growth, a gradual recovery in production now appears to be taking place."
Howard Archer, chief UK economist at consultancy IHS Global Insight, highlighted the fact that all 13 of the manufacturing sub-sectors monitored by the ONS had shown a rise in output in June.
The transport equipment sub-sector led the way, with a 5.3% month-on-month surge in output.
While viewing the June manufacturing output figures as a convincing sign of recovery in the sector, Mr Tombs highlighted the longer-term picture.
He said: "These (June) figures in isolation paint a misleadingly strong picture. The annual growth rate is flattered by the fact that June 2012 had one less working day, due to the Queen's Jubilee.
"And June's monthly rise in production was underpinned by a 1.9% monthly rise in manufacturing output, which partly reflected a bounce-back from its near-1% fall over the prior two months. The big picture is that industry is still a long way from recovering from its recession in 2012, let alone from its 2008 plunge."
David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: "After the disappointing figures we saw in May, this is positive news for the economy...But we mustn't become complacent. The level of UK output is more than 3% below its pre-recession peak in 2008, and the manufacturing sector still faces major challenges."
He declared that businesses needed a stable environment with reassurance from the Bank of England that interest rates would remain at "very low levels for the foreseeable future".
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article