Bank of England chief economist Spencer Dale has warned against “drawing too much comfort” from headlines declaring an end to the recession – emphasising it would not feel like that to many families and businesses.

His warning is the latest of a slew of cautionary messages from members of the Bank’s nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee, who appear at pains to ensure people do not get ahead of themselves as economic recovery emerges.

Sterling came under pressure again yesterday, with the euro rising through 91.5p. The pound has been hit hard by worries over the UK’s public finances and economic outlook relative to other major countries. It was weighed down yesterday by comments from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King that weaker sterling was helping a much-needed re-balancing of the economy towards exports.

Dale, while predicting growth in the second half of this year, yesterday reiterated the Bank’s message that recovery “may be slow and protracted.” He warned that tight credit conditions, as banks rebuilt their balance sheets, and the level of public sector and possibly also household debt could “delay and derail the recovery”.

He told Exeter Chamber of Commerce: “The economy appears to have turned. Following the extraordinary falls in output at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, output appears to have stabilised. And the most recent output data and business surveys suggest that we are likely to see positive growth in the second half of 2009.”

Dale added: “These indicators have prompted numerous headlines declaring an end to the recession. In a strict, technical sense that may be right – we may be moving into a period in which positive growth is resumed. But I would caution against drawing too much comfort from those headlines.

“Even if output does expand in the second half of this year, for many families and businesses it may still feel like we are in the economic doldrums. Unemployment is likely to continue rising for a period, and firms will still face sluggish demand.”

Dale’s cautionary notes came after fellow MPC member Kate Barker warned on Wednesday that it remained unclear how far the recent improvement in economic data represented a sustainable recovery. She also made it plain there would be no return of any “feel-good factor” in the short term, as unemployment continued to rise.

Minutes of the MPC’s September 9 and 10 meeting, published on Wednesday, showed that committee members still feared “false dawns” and noted “the lesson from previous financial crises was they were not resolved quickly.”

And the Confederation of British Industry, publishing its latest economic forecasts this week, warned that growth next year would be “fragile”.

The Federal Reserve meanwhile said on Wednesday that US “economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time”, while noting it had picked up after a “severe downturn”. Underlining the challenges ahead, the Fed said it “continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate (the benchmark interest rate) for an extended period.”

Dale objected yesterday to the Bank of England being viewed as gloomy because of its caution.

He said: “This caution is often characterised as the Bank being gloomy. But I fear that misses the point. Let me be clear, compared with the situation we faced only six or nine months ago, the economic outlook has improved significantly. Output is no longer in free fall, the banking system has stabilised, confidence levels have improved, and the risk of a really bad economic depression has receded. To repeat, the economy appears to have turned an important corner on the road to recovery.”

However, noting UK gross domestic product in the second quarter of this year was 5.5% lower than in the same three months of 2008, he warned: “We are only just starting along that road. The level of national output is estimated to have fallen by around 5.5% over the past year – the largest four-quarter fall experienced in the post-war period. Employment has also fallen substantially. These falls have resulted in a significant degree of economic slack opening up in the economy. Firms are operating below normal capacity; increasing numbers of people are unable to find jobs. This slack detracts from our well-being, and, if it persisted, would pull inflation down well below 2% - the target that I and my colleagues on the (MPC) are mandated to aim for.”

He added: “To meet our target, we need to see a sustained period of robust growth that brings the level of activity better into balance with the supply capacity of our economy. It is a recovery in the levels of output and employment that matters, not just a return to positive growth.”