It is a truly agonising to consider that there is one whole month from today before we finally get to vote in this EU Referendum.
Let’s be honest: it’s been a dismal affair so far. Both sides have been guilty of terrible propagandising designed to appeal to the most base of human instincts: fear of the unknown and loathing of ‘foreigners’.
Here is the question I shudder to consider: how much worse is this going to get between now and June 23? What depths are there further to be plumbed?
For the Leave campaign, it’s fairly clear what the focus will be: immigration, immigration, immigration. It’s the number two consideration for voters on June 23rd, according to last week’s MORI poll. The Boris Johnson/Michael Gove arguments about sovereignty have far less impact on people. Hitler, surprise surprise, has none at all.
Given that they are now slipping further behind in the polls, the Leave campaign will see a ruthless focus on immigration as the only strategy from here. It’s already happening. When I flicked open a major news site on my mobile phone this morning, I was greeted immediately with a banner ad in deep and alarming red which told me very simply that ‘Turkey (population 76 million) is joining the EU’.
Of course, it isn’t true. Or even close to being true. One has to make so many assumptions and leaps of logic before Turkey’s candidature for EU membership even becomes a serious possibility. And the UK would, of course, have a veto on the final decision. This is twisted, fantasy campaigning from the Leave campaign. If a major corporation made a similarly ludicrous claim, it would never survive scrutiny by Advertising Standards. But those rules don’t seem to apply when it comes to deciding the future of the nation.
The Leave Campaign’s rabble-rousing on immigration has undoubtedly been the worst aspect of the campaign. If they continue, as expected, in this vein for another month, who knows what kind of negative and enduring social impact it will have. But that kind of reasoning wouldn’t cut any ice with the angry, immature people who appear to be running Leave.
Unlike the shambolic and divided Leave side, the Remain team has run a disciplined, and well-planned operation which has ticked every box on the Project Fear checklist. It’s been almost an exact rerun of the 2014 referendum, except this time using performance enhancing drugs.
David Cameron was rightly ridiculed for his flights of fancy about war breaking out post Brexit. But, as in Scotland, the underlying, consistent strategy for Remain has been to hammer away at the economic arguments. The economy is, far and away, the biggest influencer on how people will vote on June 23rd. It’s really that simple. George Osborne has found the ‘darker’ role in the campaign I predicted a few months ago. And boy has it worked.
We can expect more of the same all the way to June 23rd. There is no way Remain will change what appears to be a winning strategy. Last week’s polls started moving decisively in their favour. MORI had them ahead by 18%. Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University reckons Remain has a 10% average lead for Remain, excluding undecideds.
A few days ago, William Hill bookmakers said there was an 83% chance of the UK voting to stay in the EU. You’d have to be very brave to bet serious money against those sort of odds.
Does this mean those of us cheering on Remain from the sidelines can start running onto the pitch because we think it’s all over? I’m afraid not.
Despite everything moving against Brexit, there remains one major nagging doubt: will the turnout be enough to guarantee a comfortable victory?
By far the strongest support for Remain comes from voters aged 18 to 34. Unfortunately, only about half of them are telling pollsters they are certain to vote. By contrast, the largest support for Leave comes from those aged 55 and over. Around 80% of those voters say they are certain to vote, according to the latest polls.
It is very easy to imagine a scenario where a low turnout of younger voters results in either a very narrow and uncomfortable victory for Remain or Leave just speaking through. This would truly be the most disastrous result of all, as it gradually dawned on younger voters that they were facing the possibility of having their economic and life choices drastically narrowed – because their parents wanted to get out.
Beyond that, is there any ‘Black Swan’ lurking that could change the voting paradigm once again? I think there will be a moment of fear close to polling day, as there was in 2014. And it may come as a result of the famously controversial TV debate between David Cameron and Nigel Farage. Number Ten is very happy to have avoided a ‘Blue on Blue’ debate between the PM and Boris or Michael Gove. But Farage should never, ever be underestimated, especially in a format like this. We should recall how he tore Nick Clegg to pieces when they debated Europe on TV in 2014. Seventy per cent of viewers supported the UKIP leader.
Cameron is a far more serious opponent than Clegg. But Farage will come out swinging, just like Alex Salmond in that legendary second debate with Darling. After being virtually dismissed by his own side during this campaign, it could be Farage who gives Remain supporters a few sleepless nights before this is finally over.
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