“Those who have previously argued that the UK somehow gives financial security and certainty to Scotland - that argument is bust, frankly”.

The above is a quote from Nicola Sturgeon as she sought to pre-empt the figures revealing the dreadful state of Scotland’s economy with some figures of her own showing the potential impact of Brexit. The quote is interesting, first because it is complete drivel and second because she uses the word “bust” - an unfortunate choice which one might call a Freudian slip. Bear this in mind as you endure the SNP’s, recently launched and largely unwanted, conversation on independence.

The figures she was trying to get us to focus on were that - rounded to the nearest billion - Scotland’s GDP might be between £2 billion and £11 billion lower in 2030 as a result of Brexit. These figures are second hand wild guesses. The real answer is that nobody has a clue. The UK economy has important issues to deal with but despite commentators being determined to persuade us that “shambles and chaos” are all around us, the evidence shows otherwise. The buses and trains still run, hospitals and schools are still open, shoppers are still shopping. Not only has the UK been proving itself to be a sporting superpower but the economy has not collapsed. Brexit, in whatever form it takes is only one of the factors, and probably not the greatest factor, which will shape our economy over the next 14 years.

What is true is that withdrawing from a single market and disrupting economic ties with our neighbours is an unhelpful thing to do from an economic perspective. Indeed it is but, the point the Nationalists are so blind to as they thump this particular tub, is that the adverse impact on the Scottish economy if it separates from the rest of the UK would dwarf the impact of us leaving the EU - the UK is far more important to us than the EU.

Which brings me to the GERS figures which show a £15 billion or 9.5% of GDP budget deficit for Scotland.

Unlike the Brexit 2030 fantasy figures these figures are real and deeply worrying. Oil tax revenues have crashed to virtually nothing but non-oil activity has also been weak. The Scottish Government’s pre-independence referendum white paper is shown up as a cobbled together absurdly biased attempt to smooch the voters. The truth is our economy is not in good shape - and that is not England’s fault.

If an Independent Scotland wants to join the EU it has to sign up to join the Euro and, under the terms which govern the Euro area, no country is supposed to run a deficit of more than 3% of GDP. Several countries are currently struggling to stick below that ceiling but the longer term requirement to stay within it remains. To get below that cap means we have significantly to improve Scotland’s deficit. Based on the current size of our economy it would require tax rises or spending cuts totalling over £10 billion. To put that into perspective, if you plugged the gap through higher income tax it is equivalent to an extra nearly £5,000 per year from every Scottish income tax payer.

Scotland is not bust but the facts show that the Scottish Government’s claim we would be economically better off on our own is well and truly bust. Remember this as you are forced to listen to the SNP’s renewed onslaught of made up facts.

Pinstripe is a senior member of Scotland's financial services community