John Mason: 'As hospital passes go, you have to doff your cap to George Osborne'

His first major set piece as resident of number 11 could scarcely come at more precarious time for the UK economy. In case you need reminding, he’s having to make his decisions in the context of a looming UK Brexit, a US which elected Donald Trump to the White House, and an emboldened SNP which has reinvigorated the Scottish independence debate.

Nervous? I would be. But as one of the chief stewards of UK plc, Mr Hammond needs to present a confident, considered idea of where he’s planning to take us. The Budget in spring 2017 is the biggie, but the Autumn Statement should at least provide an indication of his direction of travel.

In the context of all of this, it’s hard to guess which – if any – rabbits he might produce from his hat. His predecessor was known for delivering some welcome surprises, but Mr Hammond’s

first task should be to calm any nerves around Brexit, which have been gradually increasing in intensity since June’s vote.

Taxation, in my view, is at a fair level for UK businesses. Corporation tax, to fall to 19 per cent next year, makes us very competitive, and other incentives like capital allowances and R&D tax credits allow SMEs in particular to invest in their future and thereby benefit the wider economy.

However, taming the aggressive tax avoidance of bigger corporates remains a key priority. I’d like to see Mr Hammond continue the work begun by George Osborne. Proportionate taxation isn’t just a cornerstone of any economy, it’s a question of fairness. SME businesses across the UK understand this and the majority of companies do the right thing and pay an appropriate amount of tax.

There’s also a delicate balance to be struck between public expenditure and managing the deficit. Truthfully, a greater level of spending on infrastructure, for example, would probably benefit business, and if that can trickle through to the Scottish economy via Holyrood then I expect it would find good support from most business owners.

However, we need to be wary of abandoning the fiscal responsibility enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. A runaway deficit is a serious threat to our long-term finances, and Mr Hammond will need to tread the line between stimulating economies throughout the UK and unburdening future generations from monstrous debts.

The Chancellor will know the level of expectation riding on this is greater than any recent Autumn Statement, and one would think he’s been in this game long enough to be able to make a decent go of negotiating the minefield in front of him. The trick will be to produce something meaningful, effective, and reassuring – if he can do that, he might manage to side-step that 20-stone juggernaut.

John Mason, director at Johnston Carmichael