AS financial markets reopen today for their first session of the new year, it seems apposite to contemplate what 2015 is likely to hold for the Scottish and wider UK economy.

 

Last year was a big one, with the economy thrust into the forefront of the debate on Scottish independence.

However, even after all the drama around this close-run contest, there is little danger of 2015 proving to be a damp squib in the excitement stakes.

Financial markets will be keeping a close eye on what way the political wind is blowing as the UK General Election looms, and there are plenty of possible scenarios on this front.

At this stage, it looks possible that either Labour or the Conservatives could achieve an overall majority. However, there is also a very realistic chance that, as happened in the 2010 election, this year's result could be followed by a period of horse-trading to see who ends up in power.

Who knows what might happen? The SNP, fresh from its very respectable result in the Scottish independence referendum, might turn out to be an important power broker, with the possibility that such a position could trigger much speculation about the possibility or timing of another referendum on constitutional change.

Also possible is a prominent role for the UK Independence Party (UKIP).

There was much debate over the potential impact of constitutional change in Scotland on the economy, with at least some of the dire warnings appearing seriously overdone.

However, if a majority Conservative Government were in charge after the next election, or a minority Tory administration requiring UKIP support, this could have much, much greater economic ramifications than would have arisen from Scottish independence.

These might not be immediate but that does not mean they would not be huge.

What we are, of course, talking about here is the possibility of a 2017 referendum on future UK membership of the EU.

Prime Minister David Cameron has made plain his intention to hold such a poll in the event of a Conservative victory at the election.

Mr Cameron appears at pains to pacify the right wing of his party, and woo voters, by attempting to blame the EU for some of the UK's woes.

The anti-EU rhetoric is tiresome. But it is also alarming.

What is being proposed here is a possible separation from an enormous free trade block - one that is crucial for the outward-facing Scotland and its exporters.

A recent visit to Taiwan hammered home the importance of being part of free trade alliances. Taiwan is an economy that is very dependent on exports, and it has a lot to offer on this front. Electronics companies Acer and Asus, household names in the UK, are both Taiwanese.

Taiwan, in the shadow of mainland China, is making huge efforts to become part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade arrangements.

The pages of the serious newspapers in Taiwan are dominated by stories about trade talks.

There is no doubt Taiwan, or the Republic of China to give the island its official name, is aware of just how important the ability to trade without barriers or tariffs is to its economy.

Yet we have the prospect that the population of the UK, part of a huge EU trading block that has brought huge benefits, might in the not-too-distant future vote to leave this alliance.

It is a prospect that does not bear thinking about, and it would be difficult to overestimate the detrimental impact on the UK, including Scotland, of such sheer folly.

Business leaders were very vocal on the independence issue, in interventions that at times appeared over the top.

Hopefully, they will speak up in an effort to nip the danger of the UK exiting the EU in the bud. While 2017 might seem a bit distant, there is no time to be lost in attempting to ensure common sense prevails.

It would be awful if the UK's economic future were put in jeopardy for the sake of short-term political gain.

EU membership is a huge issue on the horizon for the UK economy.

There are also other significant challenges.

The UK has recorded what, on the face of it, has appeared solid enough growth in recent quarters.

However, it is important to remember the context as the Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats, gear up to try to sell the story of their economic record to the electorate.

The recovery has, even the Coalition would have to admit, come much, much later than it had projected.

But it is not just the delay.

Plenty of experts are warning about the unbalanced nature of the UK economic recovery.

Remember the "march of the makers", promised by Chancellor George Osborne in his March 2011 Budget. It has failed to materialise.

Instead, backed by government measures, we have had a mini-boom in the UK housing market, which has appeared at times to be about as wise as going out drinking with a hangover.

The UK inflation numbers have been benign of late, which might have bought the Coalition a little time on the interest-rate front.

Some economists have pushed back their projections of the timing of the first rise in UK base rates from their record low of 0.5 per cent towards the end of next year.

That is all very well. But is it not worrying that we see financial markets continuing to take heart from the prospect of a further extended period of extremely low interest rates. We have for example, in recent weeks, seen equities on both sides of the Atlantic boosted by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve on US interest rates.

That is not to say rates do not need to be as low as they are.

However, rising interest rates would be a sign that things were returning to normal. Unfortunately, we still appear a long way from such a happy scenario.