CBI must wake up to European Diplodocus in room before it is too late

The demands were entirely predictable, and included much banging on about public sector reform. The CBI, not surprisingly, wants a comprehensive spending review to be started to "make essential savings", and is seeking a cast-iron commitment to keep business taxation low.

The business organisation remains seemingly oblivious to the fact that public sector cuts leave many people with much less money to spend on CBI member companies' products and services.

However, the somewhat tiresome demand for public sector cuts, a very familiar refrain from the CBI, was perhaps surprisingly not the most irritating element of the latest policy paper from the employers' organisation.

What was supremely infuriating was that the CBI did not appear to see the need to address, in any kind of even nearly robust way, the real danger to businesses during the lifetime of the next UK Government. This huge risk could well crystallise if the Conservative Party, which has come up with some policies that will almost certainly have delighted the CBI during nearly five years as senior partner in the current Coalition Government, holds the whip hand after the General Election.

In case you had not guessed by now, the spectre looming large over businesses in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK is that of an exit from the European Union. Hopefully, this spectre will not materialise fully, but there is a very significant risk that it might.

As most of us know by now, the business community does not like risks.

And the consequences of exiting the European Union, a huge free trade zone for UK companies, hardly bear thinking about. That said, we must consider them.

There was much debate ahead of last September's referendum on Scottish independence about the possible economic impact of constitutional change. Regardless of your view on whether independence would have been good or bad for companies and the economy in Scotland, you can be sure that the consequences of a UK exit from the EU would be far, far greater. And they would definitely be negative.

Yet the CBI, which was so vociferous during the independence debate, seems comfortable paying scant regard to this European Diplodocus in the chamber in its list of demands. Rather, in its 'Best Foot Forward: Steps towards a better Britain in the new Government's first 100 days' document, the CBI focuses not on the danger of a so-called "Brexit" but rather on what it calls an "ambitious, achievable reform agenda that will keep Britain in the EU".

While director-general John Cridland has on occasion warned about the impact of exiting the EU, the latest document appears to take the issue of the UK's continuing membership somewhat for granted. However, we certainly cannot do that, especially given the pathetic anti-European rhetoric and bile emanating from some of those on the right of the UK political spectrum.

The fact of the matter is this. Prime Minister David Cameron, who has come under pressure from the rise of the UK Independence Party, has promised a referendum on the country's continuing membership of the EU by 2017.

So, if Mr Cameron is still in power after the next election, the matter of the UK's EU membership will be out of the hands of the leader of the country. Rather, it will be in the hands of an electorate which has had to listen to way too much anti-European sentiment. So who knows what might happen?

You would think it might be in the CBI's interests to highlight this danger.

Thankfully, Standard Life chairman Sir Gerry Grimstone was a lot more forceful on the issue this week. Standard Life, you might remember, figured prominently in the Scottish independence debate by warning it could move operations south in the event of a 'Yes' vote.

It is good to see, when it comes to the massive EU exit issue, Edinburgh-based Standard Life is speaking up loudly.

Sir Gerry told a conference in London: "It would be disastrous for London and the UK if the UK were to leave the single market."

And, thankfully, there does appear to be a good awareness in Scotland of the risks associated with a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU.

Liz Cameron, chief executive of Scottish Chambers of Commerce, appears to have a good handle on this crucial issue, and you would expect to be hearing a lot more from her on this front.

Scottish Chambers, understandably, kept out of the independence debate, respecting the diverse views of its membership. However, you get the impression it will be in the thick of the EU debate, as it should.

Bank of Scotland chief economist Donald MacRae has this week highlighted future UK membership of the EU as a major uncertainty facing businesses north of the Border, warning: "It is looming larger day by day."

Introducing the CBI document of demands, Mr Cridland declared: "Whether we have a majority, minority or coalition Government, we ask those involved to ensure the period of post-election uncertainty is kept to a minimum. We cannot afford a power vacuum that delays urgent policy decisions and unsettles potential investors, so any new Cabinet must get down to business as soon as possible."

My word. If the CBI wants post-election uncertainty minimised, it should perhaps try to ensure, if Mr Cameron does remain in power, he thinks again quickly about his EU membership referendum commitment. As things stand, this will be not only a huge but also a very protracted uncertainty.

And what about unsettling potential investors? Many companies from outwith Europe that set up operations in the UK do so to take advantage of the huge EU single market.

The bosses of such potential inward investors should not be in their jobs if they cannot see the huge uncertainty arising from a Brexit referendum.

And the CBI will not be doing its job if it does not start highlighting, in the strongest terms, the grave dangers of the UK exiting the EU. Fast.