The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) global monthly economic review for December 2014 shows that the UK trade deficit continues to widen.
Elsewhere, China risks missing its growth target, Russia may be on the brink of a recession and in the EU and US, inflation is dropping as oil prices continue to decline.
The UK trade in goods deficit widened by £0.9 billion to £29 billion in Q3 2014 and the UK's surplus in goods with the US reached its lowest level in almost eight years.
Partially offsetting this were notable improvements to the UK's deficits with China, reflecting a rise in exports and a fall in imports in Q3.
However, Germany remains the UK's largest trading partner in terms of the value of goods exported and imported.
Back in 2010, the Chancellor hoped exports would be a significant contributor to GDP growth and help shift the economy away from its reliance on household consumption.
But net trade has dragged down the economy every year since 2011.
Forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility predict the value of exports will reach just £617billion in 2019/20, almost 40 per cent lower than Mr Osborne's target of doubling exports to £1trillion by 2020.
Exports need more support to play a full role in strengthening the economy, but UK export markets are expected to grow more slowly than world trade in 2014 because these economies have experienced slower-than-expected growth in 2014.
We are heavily reliant on trading with Europe so efforts should be spent on diversification of exports to fast-growing emerging markets.
The BCC lowered its UK GDP growth forecast from 3.2 per cent to three per cent in 2014, from 2.8 per cent to 2.6 per cent in 2015, and from 2.5 per cent to 2.4 per cent in 2016.
The downgrades were mainly due to lower-than-expected growth in services, household consumption and exports.
The price of Brent Crude has fallen from $100 in October to just over $62 at the time of writing.
Members of oil cartel OPEC have not reduced production.
While lower oil prices could provide a boost to many economies through cheaper fuel, the sharp drop in the cost of crude is affecting many oil producers, including Aberdeen.
This matters to everyone in Scotland as the industry based in Aberdeen supports over 100,000 jobs in the supply chain throughout the rest of the country as well as North-east jobs.
The bottom line is that the UK's export performance over the past year indicates that the export target is out of reach.
Government at all levels will need to change its policies if we expect to compete in a tough market.
- Robert Collier is chief executive of Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce
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