My column published at the outset of 2015 made very depressing reading - the dismal economist at work.

Subsequently I have been reflecting as to whether the doom and gloom was overdone. On balance that looks not to be the case. Developments externally continue to point to major problems across the global economy; and these will have significant repercussions for the UK and Scotland. Our economies are slowing once more and it is difficult to see new sources of external or internal momentum.

We face a period of decelerating growth coupled with the potential onset of deflation. This should mean that interest rates will stay right where they are now way in to 2017 - good news for some. However, the prospects for our external facing sectors are poor and consumer confidence will be constrained until real wage growth recovers towards historic levels. David Cameron's much vaunted 'long term economic plan' will not result in sustained, strong and balanced growth while the outside world remains in an increasingly weak and uncertain state.

The key actors in the international economic drama at present are Greece and China. Clearly the latter matters more for the global economy, but the developments in Greece are distinctly relevant to prospects in our major market place - the eurozone - so let us start there

The victory of 'Syriza' in the Greek elections was anticipated. However, less anticipated was that another party vehemently opposed to the austerity programme - the' Independent Greeks' - should thrive to the extent that the two parties together have a working majority in Parliament. The confusing consequence is that the new Greek Government is wholly opposed to the austerity programme agreed with the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB), but still it appears that the Greek people wish to remain not just within the EU but within the eurozone. Nobody is clear as to how these two contradictory objectives can be made consistent. How can Greece avoid repaying debt and remain with the euro?

Some deal, perhaps involving a 5 year moratorium in debt, might be possible - although it is increasingly evident that Frau Merkel will take a huge amount of convincing. If no deal emerges soon, then Greek exit and default would come right back to the top of the agenda; and that could be de-stabilizing right across the zone and its key trading partners. (We have already seen how even Switzerland was unable to cope with the currency stresses and has had to let the Swiss Franc float sharply upwards!)

Meantime the ECB has embarked upon its own version of Quantitative Easing - as modelled earlier by Japan, the USA and the UK. Their version is different and thus far relatively limited. Initially it appeared to raise confidence in the markets regarding prospects for the eurozone. Subsequently (perhaps also reflecting the Greek election story) bond yields for several countries have returned to their starting point. Greater confidence would have meant lower interest rates on Government debt. That has materialised for the German powerhouse but not for the weaker members of the zone.

So the European outlook is disturbing and uncertain. That is, to understate, unfortunate given the zone remains very much Scotland's largest trading partner. Looking more widely in the global economy the critical economies are the USA and China. Growth in the US slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2014, down from five per cent annualised (that is the way the US provides GDP data) in Q3 to 2.6 per cent in Q4. Overall growth for the full year of 2014 is estimated at 2.4 per cent, a tad lower than the UK's 2.6 per cent. But momentum remains, as US consumer demand is robust and soundly based and that economy will be the main global beneficiary of lower oil prices. So we can remain reasonably relaxed regarding the US outlook.

Not so for China! The official data show GDP growth there in 2014 as 7.4 per cent. That sounds spectacularly strong, but in fact would be the slowest since 1990. The full story is even more disturbing as a seemingly sound leading indicator produced by Fathom consultants tends to confirm the general view that the official data overstate growth and deceleration is continuing at pace. Growth could be declining to four per cent or even less - China is experiencing a 'hard landing'. The authorities there are referring to 'a new normal' to brush off concerns but evidence suggests that consumer growth is not developing as planned while in several sectors production is tapering off.

This - i.e. the sharp cut back in Chinese output - is hitting global demand for commodities and may well be the main cause of lower oil prices. If correct, that would imply that the scenario of low oil prices could remain in place for an extended period.

These Chinese developments also suggest that we are losing, at least temporarily, one of the key motors of our global economy. Taken together, the eurozone mired in uncertainty and China slowing sharply spell problems ahead. The UK may enter a mild deflationary period and, even with interest rates stuck at rock bottom, the outlook is for growth well below what we have previously seen as trend. The road ahead remains rocky.

- Jeremy Peat is visiting professor at Strathclyde University's international public policy institute.