The Scottish economy at the beginning of 2015 is sending out some contradictory messages. On one hand, there is the growing evidence of the damaging effects that the sharp fall in the price of oil is having, whilst on the other, there is a wealth of evidence that many other businesses are enjoying a healthy and extended period of growth.
The health of our oil and gas industry is important not just for Aberdeen and the North East of Scotland but throughout our country. Whilst the majority of the jobs which rely on the oil and gas industry are based in the Grampian area, almost as many are spread throughout the rest of Scotland and there will be widespread knock-on effects of any extended downturn in the price of oil. This underlines the need for the UK Government to go much further than it did in last month's Autumn Statement in terms of reducing the headline rate of tax on oil and gas companies to more appropriate levels.
The other major unknown for Scottish businesses this year is again the health of the eurozone economy, which entered a deflationary phase at the end of 2014. It remains to be seen how effective the European Central Bank's mooted Quantitative Easing scheme might be, but there is at least some risk that one of the effects could be to make UK goods and services relatively more expensive to European customers, thus putting further pressure on our exports.
However despite these dark clouds there were two significant positive messages from the latest Scottish Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Business Survey, published last week. These are the increasing trend in business investment and the growth of non-EU exports. Rising levels of business investment have been long awaited and are necessary if the economic recovery - which until now has relied on consumer spending to drive it forward - is to be sustainable in the medium to long term. Equally the growth in exports to countries outwith the European Union demonstrates that Scottish businesses are alive to the opportunities that exist in many growing markets across the globe in the face of a prolonged period of stagnation among our European neighbours.
So where now for the Scottish economy? I believe that when business is successful, Scotland is successful. Governments need to act swiftly when required, such as in the case of oil and gas taxation, but many of our businesses are fighting fit and investing to grow.
Liz Cameron is chief executive of Scottish Chambers of Commerce
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