FIGURES this week revealing a significant fall in Scotch whisky exports in 2014 are likely to have given distillers serious pause for thought as they ramp up production capacity, whatever face they might put on things.

The industry has been likened to a supertanker, in terms of the time and effort required to change course.

For the Scotch industry, the timescales involved in turning are extremely long.

Distillers must lay down stocks years and decades in advance on the basis of their best estimates, or informed guesses, regarding future demand.

The industry has, in decades past, seen periods of oversupply, with painful consequences including the mothballing of distilleries, when the cycle has turned downward.

As the Scotch whisky sector invests many hundreds of millions of pounds in additional capacity, senior industry figures seem to be of one mind when asked if past experience of oversupply is likely to be repeated.

They tell you, pretty much, it is going to be different this time. In particular, they highlight seismic demographic shifts, including the emergence of a huge middle class with money to spend in the likes of China and India.

History generally teaches us that, when we are told it is all going to be so different this time around, we should worry.

There are few better examples of this than the global financial crises we have seen over the decades. It seems that the financial sector never learns.

The same could be said about the more regular cycles of boom and bust for economies, stock market rallies and crashes, and so on and so forth.

On the other hand, the Scotch whisky industry is certainly correct in its assertion that the world is changing. The shifts are indeed huge, and they are happening fast.

In terms of attempting to unravel the puzzle of what is happening in the Scotch whisky industry, and endeavouring to hazard an educated guess about what the future might hold, this week's export figures from the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) contain mixed messages.

They show the overall value of Scotch whisky exports in 2014, at £3.95 billion, was down seven per cent on the previous year. And 2014 is the second consecutive year in which exports of Scotch have fallen.

It is important to note the value of Scotch exports in 2013, at £4.26bn, was down only about £14 million, or 0.3 per cent, from the record £4.27bn achieved in 2012.

That said, the fall in exports in 2014 cannot and should not be dismissed lightly. And there are possible causes for concern.

In spite of the blaze of publicity around the potential of emerging markets, the US has long been one of the happiest hunting grounds for the Scotch whisky industry.

The value of Scotch exports to the US, the world's largest economy, remained impressive right through the deep global recession and in subsequent years.

The US economy, in a global context, appears in relatively good shape.

But the latest SWA figures show the value of exports to the US, the largest market for Scotch by value, was, at £750m last year, down nine per cent on 2013.

The SWA cited some impact from stock adjustments in the US, but the reverse in exports to the biggest market must surely be a worry for the industry.

And Scotch exports to Singapore, which serves as a distribution hub for other Asian markets including China, dropped 39 per cent to £201m last year. No doubt this has much to do with high-profile "anti-extravagance" measures by the authorities in Communist China.

There were also significant drops last year in the value of Scotch whisky exports to Spain, Germany, South Africa, Mexico, and Brazil.

This series of reverses might well be a reason to fret about the "it will all be different this time" view.

Having said that, the export figures were not universally gloomy.

Probably the brightest spot was a 36 per cent hike in the value of Scotch exports to Taiwan, to £197m in 2014.

Taiwan has been a great market for Scotch over the decades. It has perhaps been overshadowed to some extent in recent times by all the talk about the potential of China from the likes of politicians but Scotch industry insiders are well aware of the importance of the Taiwanese market.

A recent visit to the country underlined Taiwan's appetite for Scotch, and the willingness of the wealthy to pay top dollar for rare and super-premium versions.

The glossy Sky Boutique in-flight shopping magazine of the Taiwan-based China Airlines included a 70-centilitre bottle of The Macallan Oscuro single malt, distilled by Edrington and produced in sherry-seasoned casks, at US$709, nearly £480 at current exchange rates.

Asked about Scotch, Vanessa YP Shih, Taiwan vice-minister for foreign affairs, replied enthusiastically: "I drink whisky. I love whisky. I understand we are a very important export market for single malt whisky."

The progress of Scotch in the Taiwanese market is to be welcomed. And it shows what can be achieved by the industry in Asian markets.

The SWA figures meanwhile provided some justification for distillers' huge belief in the potential of India. Exports of Scotch to India last year, at £89m, were up 29 per cent on 2013.

A look back over the years shows, even after the setback in 2014, total exports of Scotch last year were up by about 75 per cent on 2004.

This context suggests it is not yet time for a dramatic about-turn by the Scotch whisky industry on its huge programme of investment in capacity.

However, the failure of the Chinese market to live up to its billing and the reverse last year in Scotch's most important export market, the US, are undoubtedly not what distillers would have wanted so soon after signing up to huge, long-term investment projects.

Hopefully for the industry and the Scottish economy, it will be different this time round. It may be years before we know.

Distillers will be hoping their faith in changing demographics in the likes of China and India will generate demand for all that extra Scotch being produced.

In the meantime, they could certainly do with some renewed growth in exports to calm any nerves that might be manifesting themselves.