We are prepared for a bumpy ride ahead in 2015 as we launch a new portfolio of six shares designed to beat the performance of the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 share index for the 13th year since we launched our share tipping service back in 2003.
Despite a flat end to the past year, most brokers are convinced stock markets will push higher in coming months, and top advisers at Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are among those who believe the FTSE is likely to breeze past the record 6930 level set back in December 1999.
But we are concerned global investors could take fright and begin to withdraw cash from UK markets in the run-up to the General Election in May, which is likely to see no single party in overall control as a result of the rise of the SNP in Scotland and Ukip down south.
The prospect of a fragile Coalition attempting to deal with the Government's overstretched finances could be enough to spark a run on the pound, even without fears of a potential EU exit.
Even so, we believe our latest recommendations should be able to turn in a good overall profit by the end of this year. We accept there will be some disappointments along the way, so we have set stop-loss levels at which we advise followers to consider selling on any major reversal. We normally set this target at 10% below the highest price reached by individual shares, but we have widened this to 15% for these new tips, to take account of the usual volatility at the start of every year.
Aberdeen's FirstGroup has been a disappointment to investors ever since it overpaid for the American Laidlaw Group eight years ago, and the share price has been plumbing new depths since it lost out on five major rail franchises last year.
But it is now a good each-way bet as chief executive Tim O'Toole has little option but to steer his US Greyhound and student bus operations to a major profits turn-around this year or sell and eliminate a heavy debt burden.
Dunfermline-based Optos, which makes most of its cash in appreciating US dollars, is in a far happier position after doubling profits from its retinal imaging machines last year, but the fun may just be starting as the group rolls out new products for early-stage detection of diabetes and other diseases. The shares have a growing fan club of stockbroking firms with Numis, for example, seeing the potential for the shares to climb another 100p in the medium-term.
Anglo-Dutch information services group Reed Elsevier, which has two-thirds of its business in North America, should prove a safe haven if the UK stock market runs into trouble. But we are hoping for additional excitement as directors step up their rationalisation policy.
Home Retail, owner of Argos and Homebase, stands to gain as customers find themselves with more cash in their pockets, but the real attraction is the increased cash flow and profits from property sales.
Genus, the global agricultural breeding specialist, is poised to benefit from better times for its farming customers, who are gaining from a bumper grain harvest and the effects of lower fuel prices for their machinery, and cheaper chemicals.
Shares of Irish drinks group C&C have been under a cloud as directors mull over a possible counter bid for the English Spirit pubs chain or another acquisition to lessen their overwhelming dependence on Ireland and Scotland for sales of products such as Tennent's and Bulmers cider. Regardless of the final decision, the shares now look tempting on a medium-term basis.
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