Royal Mail shares were offering a paper profit of almost 50% on the 330p issue price in the first day of full trading last Tuesday, as brokers reported heavy selling by small shareholders.
TD Direct said 91% of its trades had been sales after initial dealing began on October 11, while on Tuesday the ratio of buyers had increased to 30%.
Trends and Targets, a Scottish-based analyst which uses its own software to predict daily share and market movements, got Tuesday's 489p closing price spot on. Founder Alistair Strang said: "Where will the price go? Our software suggests the 500p level can be exceeded - just.
"Our reports are based against share price movements and nothing else. We essentially mimic what we suspect trading algorithms are about to do. At time of writing, Royal Mail has sufficient oomph for a high of 514p, or a low of 412p."
However, the RM share allocation came as a disappointment to small investors whose applications were scaled back heavily or rejected altogether.
Stockbroker James Brearley and discount broker Clubfinance said of the 690,000 people who applied for shares through its platform, 55% had hoped for allocations between £2,000 and £10,000, receiving only the basic allocation of £750 or 227 shares. The much hoped-for dividend pay-out might be £46 - no great boost to income.
David Scrivens, co-founder of Clubfinance, which offers 50p share trades to frequent traders, said: "I'm certain some in this group will regret the hype that has surrounded the Royal Mail IPO, which has undoubtedly led to large numbers of novice and first time investors applying."
He added: "While it is encouraging to see such interest in an IPO and signs of a growing share-owning culture among the public, the system for allocating the shares may be seen as flawed or unfair to the vast majority of regular investors who have received nothing like the amount of shares they wanted. These investors might also look at the huge allocation of shares for city institutions and reflect that the process could have been done more fairly."
For those who got no shares in the Royal Mail IPO, or who have sold their 227 shares as not worth the trouble, or who now see the price as too high, analysts at Brewin Dolphin suggest four alternative stocks:
Centrica, the former British Gas sold to "Sid" in 1986, trading at 12.3 times its earnings and offering a 4.7% dividend yield; mail group Inmarsat, which Brewin says is of a comparable size to Royal Mail but is a better investment prospect in the same sector, with a yield of 4.1%; car insurer Admiral, which is capable of paying out up to 7% in dividend; and Tesco, which Brewin says is on a yield of just over 4%, and could benefit from its US exit and from better capital discipline and improved sales at home.
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