Households face post-referendum austerity, savers will suffer, borrowing may stay cheap, and investors should be thinking about buying rather than selling.
So said the financial experts as the dust settled on Thursday’s political earthquake, with Scottish concerns focused more on the added uncertainties of a possible new independence vote.
Ian Kernohan, economist at Royal London Asset Management, said: “Given the sharp rise in uncertainty for households and firms, it now seems sensible to assume a UK recession in the second half of this year.”
Tom Becket, chief investment officer at Psigma Investment Management, said: “Our view is that the UK economy was already in a difficult place, due to structural imbalances and low rates of investment. Sadly, the vote will only weaken the economic outlook further. In addition, the political uncertainty over the government, the Prime Minister and the plausibility of the Union will also weigh on our economy, currency and financial markets for some time to come.”
Scottish Friendly’s Calum Bennie said its recent Disposable Income Index showed households were “already squeezed and could be in for a period of increased costs”, with a period of instability and market volatility affecting household finances.
He added: “Sterling has plummeted and if it later needs to be propped up by increases in interest rates, this could result in higher mortgage costs. On the other hand, if the economy falters, the Bank of England could leave interest rates at their current all-time low or reduce them further to try and stimulate the economy. Holidaymakers will certainly be hit over the next few weeks with the higher cost of buying currency.”
Elaine McInroy, tax expert at accountants Saffery Champness in Edinburgh, said: “A large proportion of our taxes are entirely domestic in nature, and Brexit by itself won’t change any of these. VAT however is a pan-European tax and so following a Brexit we will have the freedom to extend or restrict the range of items on which it is charged. This could result in cheaper consumer goods if some essentials are freed from VAT.”
Holly Mackay, founder of Boring Money, said: “As sterling plummets, goods we buy in from abroad become more expensive and so we expect to see the price of living go up. Normally you would expect that to mean interest rates would rise over the medium-term as this is the Bank of England’s way to take the foot off inflation’s accelerator pedal.
“However, given all the uncertainty out there, the slow economic climate and worldwide gloom, we believe that interest rates will remain low for some time yet and may even go down. We would not expect mortgage rates to increase over the coming months.”
Dick Jenkins, chairman of the Building Societies Association, said: “The process of leaving the EU will be a relatively slow one, taking around two years. Today and for the foreseeable future nothing changes - mortgages are available and retail savings are safe.”
Savers might expect rates to stay pressed to the floor, but investors had opportunities, Mackay said. “Companies’ core fundamentals have not changed overnight. We are still in the EU today and the process of leaving won’t start to be thrashed through until October. We could say that the stock market is simply ‘on sale’. If you are saving with a long- term intent, then times like this are when you think about buying, not selling.”
Investors in renewable energy projects have made a good decision, according to Bruce Davis, cofounder of P2P investment platform Abundance. He said: “Shares, ISAs and pensions invested in equites are taking a short term hit, which for most is best ridden out in the hope of a bounce back in time.
“For investors holding debentures in renewable energy projects, all will carry on as it was. If anything, the pressure will be positive as Brexit is likely to increase energy price inflation and thus any variable returns on our projects.”
Trent Lyons, financial analyst at Chiene + Tait Financial Planning in Edinburgh, said: “It is important to look through the short-term reaction to the result of the referendum and the volatile investment markets and remember that investing for retirement is a long-term strategy. Those who are approaching retirement will continue to invest their pension assets for many years into the future, long after the impact of ‘Brexit’ has subsided.”
David Cox, managing director of the Association of Residential Letting Agents, said: “The outcome will create a period of uncertainty among homeowners, buyers, investors, landlords and developers. We can expect international investors to look a lot harder at the UK as a market; this will have a consequential impact upon the housebuilding sector as investment may be stalled.
“In the short term we believe that both prices, and rents, will remain stable, but we cannot be certain about the next quarter as political instability, and market unrest, could lead through into prices in the housing market.”
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