HALF of finance chiefs forecast “flat” or “negligible” UK growth in the coming 12 months, of less than one per cent, in a survey by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland.
The survey of finance chiefs throughout the UK identified domestic political factors as the second-biggest barrier to growth. Brexit-related issues were cited as the third-largest impediment. Red tape and regulation were viewed as the greatest barrier. Finance chiefs cited skills shortages as the fourth-biggest hurdle, and weak consumer confidence as the fifth-greatest barrier. Weak business confidence was cited as the sixth-largest impediment.
Only 39% of finance chiefs at small organisations, with annual turnover of less than £10 million, forecast UK growth of 1% or more in the coming 12 months. And 11% believed the UK economy was set to decline.
Overall, 41% of finance chiefs predict “modest” UK growth in the coming year, of between 1% and 2.5%. And 4% expect the economy to decline, with only 2% foreseeing “strong” growth of 2.5%-plus.
Meanwhile, 23% of finance chiefs forecast redundancies in their organisation in the remainder of 2018. The corresponding proportion in the 2017 survey was just 10%.
Finance chiefs cited “controlling costs” as their biggest worry. “Growing revenues” was flagged as their second-top issue, with recruitment and retention of staff in third place, and cyber security fourth.
ICAS chief executive Bruce Cartwright said: “Controlling costs, growing revenues and recruitment and retention have consistently been finance directors’ top priorities. But with the increasing reliance we all place on information technology, and the ever-increasing array of threats from ‘distributed denial of service’ attacks to targeted phishing by fraudsters, it’s perhaps no surprise cyber security features in the top-four headaches for the FD.”
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