GIVEN the very difficult UK economic backdrop, there are reasons to be hopeful in the latest business monitor from Royal Bank of Scotland and the Fraser of Allander Institute.
Chief among these is a further sign that the worst of the economic downturn in north-east Scotland is now behind us.
That is not to say that Aberdeen and the surrounding area are going to see a sudden return to the boom days. However, it has been a grim time for much of north-east Scotland for years now, with the tumble in global crude prices in the second half of 2014 having triggered a much more lasting downturn in North Sea and related activity than most people thought.
News of solid export growth across Scotland is also encouraging. And so is optimism among Scottish companies that economic growth north of the Border, while still likely to be modest, will accelerate during the opening six months of 2018.
If businesses’ expectations are realised, Scottish growth will be the fastest since late 2014, the survey shows. This highlights the degree to which the global oil price plunge has been a drag on the Scottish economy, given the broader UK picture has deteriorated significantly since last year.
This brings us to the reasons for concern about the Scottish and broader UK economic outlook. Chief among these is, of course, Brexit.
It was interesting to see Royal Bank highlight “decent sustained growth” across the eurozone as a key factor in the solid export performance from companies north of the Border.
This further highlights the sheer folly of the UK electorate’s decision to leave the EU.
Also very disappointing was the survey’s signal that capital investment fell again in the three months to December. While the report does not examine the reason, it would seem likely this fall is in no small part the result of uncertainty over the outlook as the spectre of Brexit looms.
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