ANYONE trying to decide whether the Chancellor’s seemingly relaxed and upbeat demeanour when he delivered his Spring Statement this week was justified could do worse than contemplate the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s outlook report published the same day.

Philip Hammond appeared at pains on Tuesday to paint a picture for the hard-pressed electorate that the worst of the economic misery they have suffered might be over.

Not that he dwelled on, or even really talked about, this misery or the root causes of why it is still continuing long, long after the global financial crisis and ensuing recession.

Rather, he trumpeted expectations that real wages would start growing again from the second quarter of this calendar year, as if this were some kind of economic triumph rather than merely what should be expected from any non-dysfunctional economy.

He hinted at a loosening of the strictures of austerity that have ensured the UK economy’s performance has been so miserable since the Conservatives came to power in 2010, talking about potential “capacity to enable further increases in public spending and investment in the years ahead”.

It is crucial for people to realise in this context that the Tory austerity is as bad as it has ever been. And it would be wrong to characterise any rises in public spending that might be implemented by Mr Hammond in this context as anything at all significant in terms of even beginning to reverse the damage that has been done.

The fact the UK faces a continuation of its economic malaise over many more years is writ large not only in the OECD report forecasts but also in the revised projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which accompanied Mr Hammond’s Spring Statement.

The weakness of the growth predictions, of course, reflects the drag on the UK economy from the Brexit fiasco, as well as the cumulative and ongoing effects of the Conservatives’ savage welfare cuts and public sector pay freezes and caps.

In the UK, real pay has been falling for many months. This is something that is not, however Mr Hammond might portray or gloss over things, something that is normal for an advanced economy.

The protracted real-terms fall in wages is the result of sterling’s post-Brexit vote weakness, which has hiked the cost of imports and sent inflation surging, with the prolonged ideological squeeze on public sector pay adding to the unpalatable mix.

The UK economy grew last year by only 1.7 per cent, its weakest pace since 2012. The 19-nation eurozone grew by 2.5% – its fastest expansion in a decade.

The OECD report signals this yawning differential is going to worsen this year. You probably would not have guessed this from a Spring Statement from Mr Hammond which was big on patriotism and appeared to cherry-pick UK economic statistics and present them in the most glowing context possible.

Although the OECD has raised its UK growth forecast for this year marginally to 1.3%, this is way adrift of the 2.3% expansion being projected by the think-tank for the eurozone.

The OECD is projecting global growth will accelerate from 3.7% in 2017 to 3.9% this year – three times the rate of expansion it expects in the UK. It notes that global expansion is strengthening.

Sadly, the UK is missing out, stuck at the bottom of the league table of major economies in terms of the OECD’s forecasts of expansion for this year and next.

Whether you look at the OECD or OBR forecasts, UK growth is projected to slow this year.

The OBR has edged up its 2018 growth projection for the UK from 1.4% to 1.5% – a rate also way adrift of forecast eurozone growth and far behind the OECD’s predicted US expansion of 2.9%. And, of course, realisation by the UK of the OBR’s marginally upgraded growth forecast for 2018 would represent a further worrying slowdown in UK growth from last year’s weak rate.

Incidentally, the OBR puts the Brexit divorce bill at £37.1 billion. This seems to be another good reason why Mr Hammond’s apparently relaxed and upbeat demeanour could be considered incongruous with the UK’s underlying economic predicament. Although it is also worth emphasising that Mr Hammond, thankfully, seems far more aware of the perils of Brexit than some of his Cabinet colleagues.

The OBR notes, while stronger global expansion has led to the upward revision to its UK growth forecast for this year, the domestic economic outlook in the medium term is little changed from the time of the November Budget.

For anyone who needs to be reminded, the outlook was grim then. The OBR highlighted the fact in November that it had lowered its UK growth projections for every year of the forecast period, all the way out to the early-2020s.

The OBR noted this week that a better-than-expected outturn on the public finances in recent months is “largely cyclical” and fiscal headroom is “virtually unchanged” from last autumn.

While the (minor) upward revision to this year’s growth projection might have grabbed some headlines, the OBR maintained its forecast that the UK would grow by just 1.3% in each of the 2019 and 2020 calendar years.

It cut its 2021 growth projection from 1.5% to 1.4% and reduced its predicted expansion for the following year from 1.6% to 1.5%.

None of this is good news, and it highlights the scale of the challenges facing the UK for many years.

It also underlines just how much Brexit is the very last thing we need right now, or anytime for that matter.

The OECD highlights rising global tensions and protectionism as key risks to global growth.

It is right to do so.

US President Donald Trump’s recent protectionist sabre-rattling is a worrying example of the dangers on this front.

When the risk of protectionism is growing, who would not want to be fully part of a huge free trade bloc with its mutual benefits and lots of counterbalancing power? What an absolute shame the UK is hell-bent on leaving the European single market in the wake of the Brexit vote.