Main parties take national battlefront to local level in one of the most hotly contested regions
Big two battle it out as others struggle
The Labour-Nationalist tussle is the main election battle throughout the country, but nowhere is it more concentrated on the two lead parties than in Central Scotland. This is a region - most of it Lanarkshire, but also including Falkirk and East Ayrshire - where Tories have succeeded in getting only one list MSP elected and LibDems have struggled to get even that.
It is one reason why this could be a rare opportunity for the Scottish Socialist Party to return one of its MSPs, in this case Carolyn Leckie, although she faces the prospect of competing for hard left votes with Tommy Sheridan's sister, Lynn, a former soldier, bus driver, social worker, and now lecturer.
It also helps explain why strange things can happen at the margins. This is where the Greens had their worst performance in Scotland four years ago, while Motherwell FC director John Swinburne identified a gap in the political market, in which he thought the grey vote would respond to a niche party tapping into that year's anti-politician mood. He set up the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party a few weeks before the 2003 election, and was elected ahead of LibDem Donald Gorrie.
Mr Swinburne is back this year, again using the publicity from having Old Firm oldies Billy McNeill and Eric Caldow further down the list (where they can be assured of remaining happily retired), and with some high profile candidates in other parts of the country.
His example has inspired other small parties to play and exploit the list system, and the Scottish Christian Party is courting controversy, particularly in Motherwell and Wishaw, where it claims to be spending £72,000, much of it backing its list candidates, yet explictly targeting that money at the constituency of First Minister Jack McConnell. The Bishop of Motherwell has pitched in as well, warning that Labour has lost his support over family policy, and he might support the Christian People's Alliance.
Another newcomer is Scottish Voice and NHS First, an alliance between a well-funded party without much of a cause and a poorly-funded party with its mission highly focussed on the health service.
Having got together only last week, the joint party is standing 10 candidates on regional lists around Scotland, and three constituency candidates - including a former Labour councillor from Glasgow - around Monklands General Hospital, in the hope of picking up on anti-Labour disaffection. The SNP had hoped to pick up on that protest vote itself.
The constituency battle returns clearly to the Labour v. SNP contest, particularly now that Dennis Canavan has departed Falkirk West.
Labour's internal relations are far from comradely around Falkirk. Local MP and former army major Eric Joyce attracts both loyalty and loathing in party ranks, and the party's selection of Dennis Goldie as candidate is seen, even within the party, as an own goal. Mr Canavan's closest associates are openly supporting the SNP because of the controversial Mr Goldie, who has a finding against him by the Standards Commissioner and makes a living out of renting a portfolio of former council houses.
His selection may say something about the problems the First Minister has in imposing his authority within the party. Iain Smart, an old friend, and a bright, able lawyer, had tried to beat Mr Goldie, but the support of Mr McConnell and other senior figures failed to make much difference.
Elsewhere, Labour can afford to feel confident in most of the region's seats, although national poll projections have suggested Health Minister Andy Kerr could be vulnerable to SNP list MSP Linda Fabiani in the seat of East Kilbride, which is one reason he has taken a high profile in the Labour campaign nationally.
The SNP is focussing its Central Scotland campaign on three seats: Kilmarnock and Loudoun, Cumbernauld and Kilsyth, and Falkirk West.
It has had long-established organisational strengths in Kilmarnock, at least relative to other parts of west central Scotland.
List MSP Alex Neil was one of those, though there was a falling out between local activists and it fell to a councillor, Danny Coffey, to buck the national trend in 2003, nearly holding the SNP's share of the vote against Labour's Margaret Jamieson, and cutting her majority to a beatable 1210.
Mr Coffey has now died, and his brother, Willie, is the Nationalist standard-bearer, needing a swing of less than 2%. The closure of Ayr casualty ward could have some effect on harming the Labour vote, but that is more likely to impact on the neighbouring Ayrshire seats.
In the north of the region, Cumbernauld and Kilsyth saw the SNP's Andrew Wilson come within 520 votes of Labour's Cathy Craigie in 2003. Mr Wilson had been a list MSP and his only chance of returning as an MSP was winning the seat. He raised substantial funds, ran a professional campaign, and secured a 6% swing from Labour. But his loss returned him to work as an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. Jamie Hepburn, a Holyrood researcher, has taken over as candidate.
Labour points out that it has big voter strengths, as shown by voting for Rosemary McKenna in the nearest equivalent Westminster seat. It does better in Kilsyth and Croy than Cumbernauld, where the SNP has established loyalty.
Local issues include the A80 upgrade, which could go through the heart of Cumbernauld and further split the town. Cathy Craigie supported it, and the SNP wants a public inquiry.
It could cut either way, as the alternative route through the Kelvin Valley would upset constituents around Kilsyth. With depleted high street shops an issue, Cumbernauld's retail sector could also bring a backlash against incumbents.
The LibDems are losing veteran Donald Gorrie, who moved from Edinburgh politics and took up the issue of sectarianism and alcohol in his Central Scotland constituency before others thought it possible. Aged 73, he has retired and his place at the top of the list has been taken by his Holyrood researcher Hugh O'Donnell.
