I'm going to predict the future.

This summer will see a media frenzy warning that bright Scottish students are being driven out of university places north of the Border.

The reason given will be the SNP's decision to restrict, or "cap", the number of students from Scotland who go to university in order to prop up its expensive policy of giving them free tuition. Furthermore, the runes indicate certain news outlets will contrast this with universities' willingness to recruit fee-paying students from England through the clearing system at the very same time Scottish students are being turned away. I must admit it sounds a shocking state of affairs, but there is more than a little fantasy about this interpretation of events.

It is certainly the case that competition for university places in Scotland is tough and that many students will not get into the course or university of their choice, but that has always been the case. It is also true that student numbers from England are no longer capped because they pay fees and so are treated like overseas students and can gain entry when courses are "full" for Scottish students. That may well be galling for those Scots who have missed out on an automatic place because they have not achieved their desired Highers, or, potentially, those who have over-achieved and are seeking university entry at the last minute.

However, what this summer's narrative will fail to tell you is the fact that, before fees were introduced, students from England were in direct competition for places with Scottish students and now they are not. Furthermore, the reason such students are charged fees is to ensure Scottish universities do not become swamped with student migrants from the rest of the UK fleeing high fees imposed by Westminster. What will also be conveniently forgotten is that, because Highers results come out before A-level results, most Scottish students will already have secured a place at university before clearing opens. Likewise, you will not be told the introduction of the cap has nothing to do with the SNP Government, but has always been in place to ensure the flow of students into universities is affordable and to prevent a glut of graduates entering the workforce. In fact, the SNP has increased Scottish places to record levels.

There are clearly pressures within the system. More Scottish pupils have applied to university in recent years than ever before, reflecting growing numbers who achieve well at Higher and the scarcity of jobs during a recession. There has also been an increase in applications from EU students, who compete for the same places as Scots, and the push to widen access has created a new stream of Scottish students from deprived backgrounds.

What Scotland needs, therefore, is a sensible debate on how we fund a gradual expansion in university places over the next few years to meet specific pressures rather than a rabid week-long scare story based on political prejudice and half-truths.