TO whom it may concern.

Young George has been on work experience with UK Economy Plc for two years now. During that time he has applied himself with vigour, if not always success, to the tasks assigned. In that regard we would have no hesitation in recommending him for a role with your firm, as long as that role demands nothing more than tending to the photocopier. Yours insincerely, the British taxpayer.

Just as well George Osborne is not worried where his next bawbee is coming from as the economy slides deeper into the mire. If he had to rely on his friends in high places for a job reference he would soon be joining the UK's 2.58 million unemployed. First, Lord Lawson, a former Chancellor and the man remembered fondly by his Tory colleagues for his reverse Robin Hood budgets, wondered whether Mr Osborne, in charge of party strategy and helming the economy, wasn't spreading himself too thin. (Gordon Brown didn't seem to break a sweat, and he was running for Prime Minister at the same time.)

Next came another lord not for leaping to Mr Osborne's defence. Lord Oakeshott of Seagrove Bay, or Matthew to his mates, pointed out that the Chancellor had never worked outside politics. Then this follow up: "He is doing surprisingly well for a Chancellor on work experience." Far, far away on the African plains, rhinos in Kevlar jackets winced at that one.

One of Lord Oakeshott's mates is Vince Cable, the Business Secretary. Mr Cable is a busy chap, but he has found time recently to give several interviews. In one, he was asked if he would make a good Chancellor. "I probably would," he said modestly. But seeing as nobody was suggesting a change in arrangements, and everyone was working "well" as part of a team, he wouldn't dream of elbowing his way into Number 11. "I am not pushing for the job," he said in much the same way as Michael Heseltine once said there were "no foreseeable circumstances" in which he would challenge Mrs Thatcher.

End of term came not a moment too soon for the Coalition. The boys and girls are growing restless. Besides fretting over a fast shrinking economy, Liberal Democrat and Tory MPs have an autumn reshuffle to worry about. The Prime Minister has made staff changes before, but these have been forced on him by circumstance. This is David Cameron's first chance for a proper clear-out. But will he take it? And if Mr Osborne goes, who should replace him?

It won't be Mr Cable, a man as loathed by the Tories as he is beloved by Liberal Democrats. It should be William Hague. The Foreign Secretary is no more experienced in business and the real world than the current Chancellor. Before politics, Mr Hague was a "management consultant", or to give the job its proper title "a chocolate fireguard". He was also less than a success when they gave him the keys to the party. As Tory leader, Mr Hague is best remembered for ill-advised baseball cap wearing and a few good jokes.

In his favour, however, the comprehensive-educated Mr Hague is Yorkshire born and bred, and a politician who is definitely not thick in the head. A clever chap is William, as readers of his biography of Pitt the Younger will know. The power of those northern roots of his, that chewy as a barm cake accent, should not be dismissed lightly. While Mr Hague is hardly poor, how much better to hear economic bad news from a Last of the Summer Wine sort rather than one of the Downton Abbey set (upstairs division).

Mr Hague won't get the job, and it is not for the want of talent. The forthcoming reshuffle is crucial for the Prime Minister because the fight for the next election has to start here. One wonders, however, if Mr Cameron has the right stuff for the kind of reshuffle required.

Three obstacles stand in his way: his excessive loyalty, circumstance and his lack of imagination. One of Mr Cameron's weaknesses as a Prime Minister is that he is too willing to stand by his men and women. As seen most recently with Jeremy Hunt, the Culture Secretary, he puts personal loyalty above political expediency. While that might be admirable in another line of work, it won't do at this time. When so many people are losing their jobs through no fault of their own, and as the economic crisis deepens, it defies belief that the Cabinet should be the safest place to work in Britain.

Circumstances don't bode well for a bold reshuffle either. There are some obvious candidates for the heave-ho. Francis Maude, the Cabinet Office Minister, ought to be spending more time with his jerry cans, Andrew Lansley would not be missed at health and Jeremy Hunt will need a lie down after the Olympics are over. Other than that, vacancies are in short supply. Nick Clegg cannot be moved, unless he has had a bellyful and wants to go. Shifting Theresa May would be seen as a backward step at a time when he is trying to get more women in Cabinet; Philip Hammond has handled well the business of cuts at defence; Kenneth Clarke is the safe pair of hands at justice that everyone knew he would be. And so it goes on.

Mr Cameron's problem is that most of his ministers, while they have not done anything terribly right, have not done anything terribly disastrous either. Mr Osborne falls into this category, but in an economic crisis as deep and persistent as this one, treading water, blaming Labour, blaming the eurozone, blaming the weather, are no longer credible options. Something or someone has to give.

Mr Cameron gives no sign of being able to see this. The message from the Prime Minister yesterday was that the Government would finish the job of dealing with the deficit. In short, carry on cutting at the same rate. If he sticks with the policy he has to stick with the man, Mr Osborne, who fashioned it.

It's those personal ties again. While Tony Blair and Gordon Brown might have become toxic to each other, the relationship between this Prime Minister and his Chancellor is close and lasting. Mr Osborne is to Mr Cameron what Aloysius the teddy bear was to Sebastian Flyte of Brideshead Revisited – his comfort, his confidante, his friend. Yet the times demand grown-up politics. There is life beyond Mr Osborne's tenure at the Treasury. Mr Cameron must learn to grin and bear it.