SNP must now say a word to the whys

It hasn't always been like that. Looking back over the past decade the Nationalists have swung from despair to triumph with a fair amount of drama in between. In recent years their narrative has been refined into a story of slow but inexorable progress towards realising a once-distant dream.

Against that background, the key theme of this year's conference looks spectacularly under-whelming: Scotland can be an independent country. There's a little more to it than that - of which more later - but not much. The message from Alex Salmond's opening speech on Thursday, repeated by John Swinney yesterday and every other cabinet secretary to take the stage, was simply: "Scotland has got what it takes."

To emphasise the point, spin doctors have been handing out lists of quotations from pro-UK politicians who accept that Scotland could be a viable independent country. Alistair Darling, Michael Moore, Johann Lamont and Ruth Davidson are just a few of those press ganged into the SNP's cause. The argument has been won, or so the argument goes.

Here the Nationalists are guilty of rewriting history. I can't remember the last time a leading pro-UK politician argued seriously that Scotland could not survive as an independent country. Finding a list of quotes to that effect would have been a far harder task for the SNP spinners. That said, you'd have to be a hard-hearted soul not to forgive them a little finessing. For months Better Together have been picking holes in specific SNP policies for an independent Scotland, on the currency and defence, for example, but the pro-UK campaign's bombardment of questions and criticisms can only have reinforced general lingering doubts among some voters that a go-it-alone Scotland could not make a go of it.

This is being picked up by the SNP's sophisticated polling operation, one strategist admitted glumly, hence the need to take a step back and state the most basic message of all. And it has become critically important now the Yes campaign is going all out to target the so-called "missing millions," those Scots so scunnered with politics they rarely bother to vote. Turn-out at the last Holyrood election was a fraction over 50%. In other words two million people did not cast their ballot. It's a good bet that at least half of them will be tempted to the polls by the historic nature of the referendum but they pose something of a problem for the campaigns. How do they suddenly appeal to people who are sceptical about politics and probably not following every twist and turn in the independence debate? It's worth considering that if you've failed to vote in the last three successive elections you've fallen off the parties' radar completely. You've been marked down as a lost cause, not even worth a knock on the door. The SNP's answer is to keep the message simple and wear out some shoe leather. Strategists speak bafflingly of "geographical and sectoral" campaigning, of taking a "granular approach," of "rearranging the mental furniture," but what it boils down to for hard-to-reach voters is knocking on doors.

There's a second important message issuing from the conference: Scotland not only could but should be independent. The Yes campaign's mantra that decisions about Scotland are best taken by people in Scotland is also to the fore. Ministers have argued powerfully against the "democratic deficit," the idea that Scots do not always get the UK Government they vote for.

That's the "could" and "should" of independence. What we have heard less about is the "how". With the notable exception of Nicola Sturgeon's plan to cut fuel bills by funding energy-saving schemes centrally, there have been few insights into how an independent Scotland would work in practice. All that's for the white paper now expected near the end of next month. "It will answer all your questions," the Deputy First Minister promised yesterday.