As a bellweather constituency which consistently returns an MP of the governing party, a by-election in Corby would generate intense scrutiny at any time.
The contest in November resulting from the unexpected resignation of high-profile Tory backbencher Louise Mensch will, however, provide particularly rich pickings for the political soothsayers. As the first seat that either Conservative or Liberal Democrat parties have defended since forming their Coalition in 2010 it comes when the separate parties are increasingly focused on their differences. At the vulnerable mid-point of the parliamentary term, an anti-Government swing is to be expected and with the economy in the longest double-dip recession on record and the forecasts increasingly gloomy, Labour must be on course to regain the seat.
Nevertheless, the Corby and East Northamptonshire by-election will amount to more than a simple political sounding board. The constituency is marginal because it contains both the solidly Labour town of Corby, which is matched in voting power by the equally stalwart Tory territory in the rural villages of East Northamptonshire.
As the outcome of the 2010 General Election made clear, political allegiances are increasingly fluid and more likely to depend on parties' policies on specific issues and how their leaders are perceived. That will be true of this by-election which will be viewed not only by the party machines but by the voters as a poll on the competence of the Government.
Mrs Mensch herself is an illustration of the importance of a candidate having an attractive image and high recognition factor. She was parachuted into Corby as a Tory A-list candidate, a group hand-picked to personify the message that the party had modernised and was no longer the preserve of middle-aged, white, heterosexual males.
This was crucial to capturing the support of Middle England voters who had voted for Tony Blair's New Labour in 1997. Among them was the future Tory MP for Corby, who had joined the Labour Party in 1996. Two years ago she won the seat from Labour's Phil Hope, whose 13-year tenure was tainted by the expenses scandal. Whoever the Tories select as the candidate this time around will have a much tougher task.
Given the unpopularity of the Coalition's deficit reduction policies and the particular despair of LibDem voters at the failure of their party to secure backing for policies such as Lords reform, Labour must pick up their votes in this seat if it is to win in 2015.
Ed Miliband seized the initiative yesterday in visiting the constituency with a pledge to make unemployment, especially among young people, the key issue in the campaign. It is one close to the hearts of the people of Corby whose economy was devastated when the steelworks closed in 1980 with the loss of 11,000 jobs. But Mr Miliband must produce policies if he is to convince the voters of this marginal constituency that Labour offers a credible alternative government.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article