The future for Afghanistan was always going to be fragile following the withdrawal of Nato's International Security Assistance Force (Isaf).
The leaked report on the state of the Taliban, however, is the clearest indication yet of a growing confidence among the insurgents that Afghan government forces will not be capable of taking control of the country by the end of 2014.
Its conclusion, based on 27,000 interrogations with 4000 suspected Taliban and al Qaeda detainees – that the Taliban remains strong despite the Isaf military surge and, significantly, that they are recruiting considerable numbers of defectors from the Afghan army and even from the Afghan government – belies the official Nato line that the insurgent movement has been severely damaged and is demoralised.
Its claim that Pakistan's security agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence is directly assisting a number of senior Taliban leaders can only ratchet up the tension between Pakistan and Western governments. The relationship between the US and Pakistan has been fraught since American forces killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan and the report has emerged in the wake of the first public admission by Barack Obama that the US has deployed drones against al Qaeda in Pakistan.
Against this background the visit to Kabul by Pakistan's Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar yesterday to raise the issue of peace talks with the Taliban with President Karzai was a significant step. A move towards communication with the Taliban must be made if the people of Afghanistan are to live in peace. With the Taliban dismissing the Afghan government as a puppet of the Americans, and Washington insisting talks must be led by the Karzai regime, the international community must find a way through the stalemate.
A move by the Taliban to establish an office in Qatar must be taken as a sign they are willing to engage in serious negotiation but, with a spike in violent attacks in their strongholds at the end of last year, there is no convincing evidence that they would be willing to renounce terrorism or adopt the advances achieved, such as women's rights and press freedom.
Nato defence ministers meeting in Brussels this week were already facing the prospect of re-drawing the exit plan as a result of French President Nicolas Sarkozy's intention to pull his troops out a year earlier. Pressure will increase on all the Isaf partners to leave sooner rather than later, not least because an acceleration of the handover to Afghan security forces would also suit President Obama during an election campaign.
It is clear from the report that the Taliban remain intent on power by any means. Not only is it unrealistic to expect that such a diffuse movement with divergent aims can deliver a secure agreement, Pakistan also has interests that must be acknowledged in any deal. Negotiations will be beset by difficulties but they must begin as soon as possible if the lives lost over the last 10 years are not to be in vain.
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