The news from Afghanistan seems to go from bad to worse.

At the weekend not only were two more Nato soldiers killed by one of their Afghan army colleagues, but in the Musa Qala district of Northern Helmand, 17 civilian party-goers were beheaded, apparently by the Taliban. Their crime? Playing music and watching two women dance. The dancers were among the victims. The chilling incident was a throwback to the period of Taliban rule prior to 2001, when singing and dancing were banned and men and women forbidden from mingling unless they were related.

It has been a terrible month in Afghanistan. The latest Nato deaths look like more "insider" or "blue on green" attacks – a reference to the colours of the respective soldiers' uniforms. That brings the tally to 12 foreign troops killed this month in this way and 42 this year, more than for the whole of 2011. Some of these killings appear to be the work of Taliban infiltrators.

In the psychological war for the future of Afghanistan, a war of narratives, the Taliban are keen to convince the world they have the upper hand but the situation is not so one-sided as it appeared yesterday. Few Afghans want to turn the clock back to the era of Taliban rule, with the ban on women voting, working or leaving home without a chaperone. It still may be the worst place in the world to be a woman but they have made gains in the intervening decade. Sunday's barbarism was a sharp reminder of what would be in store if the Taliban returned to power.

Afghans resent outside interference in their lives whether it is from Nato troops, a corrupt and distant government in Kabul or ultra-conservative Islamists. In Ghanzi province south of the capital, villagers turned on the Taliban in May after it banned boys' schools and closed bazaars. It was reminiscent of the turning point in Iraq when Sunni tribesmen finally tired of the intimidation, fundamentalism and summary justice meted out by al Qaeda and turned against them. US and Nato forces seem to have little choice but to wait and hope the same will happen in Afghanistan.

If there is little appetite for the return of the Taliban, there is scant enthusiasm for President Hamid Karzai's government either, with its culture of impunity and failure to provide security, stability or even the most basic services. Indeed many families have members fighting on different sides, hedging their bets with an eye to the future, perhaps. Or simply trying to stay alive.

The biggest problem for the US and Nato is that announcing 2014 as the date for withdrawal – an announcement made purely for US domestic reasons – could play into the hands of the Taliban, who can now afford to play a waiting game. Though recent events are intended to make Nato and the Afghan government look weak, murdering innocent party-goers in cold blood is a brutal reminder of the antediluvian world the Taliban inhabit.