If a funding shortfall of £42.7 million is emerging within Scottish Fire and Rescue (SFRS), public responses are liable to be as swift as the service.
They will also be predictable. Whatever the problem is, we will say, it must be resolved. Where life and property are concerned, there is no margin for error. A ringing declaration is not, unfortunately, a solution.
The fact that the SFRS believes itself a victim of its own success is ironic. The claim, though doubted by Audit Scotland, is that fire prevention work has paid off handsomely. At a time of budget stringencies, a 42 per cent drop in the number of fires since 2006/07 would seem to speak for itself. Fewer chip pan and cigarette fires, or a better-educated public more likely to install smoke alarms? In one regard, that is a secondary matter.
A long-term ambition is being fulfilled. In crude statistical terms, the SFRS is clearly doing its job. Audit Scotland accepts that the merged service has been a success. A funding crisis predicted for 2019/20 thanks, ultimately, to cuts imposed by the Westminster Government does not compromise the judgment. But all testimonials to professionalism contain a catch.
If funding is falling short, that will only add to pressures on fire prevention efforts. If those falter, the consequences could be serious: namely, more outbreaks putting the public and personnel at risk, and more demands on frontline fire fighting. The budget problem will only be exacerbated and the service will, in time, struggle to function as we all expect.
This is not a bureaucratic argument. Fatalities from fires have been reduced by 61 per cent since 2004/05. Who cares to gamble on the hope that this has had nothing to do with fire prevention? Meanwhile, the multi-million pound cost of call-outs thanks to false alarms from faulty privately-owned equipment goes unresolved. It is always worth educating the public. It might also be worth reminding some, if needs be with fines, that a "free" emergency service comes at a cost to all.
The funding problem is, for now, no more than an Audit Scotland prediction. It will rest with the Scottish Government to select priorities depending on the settlements made by Westminster. By 2019/20, indeed, this could be an issue for Edinburgh alone. Since "more powers" do not guarantee more cash, however, there is still a case for hard thinking where the future of SFRS is concerned.
The idea of fewer fire fighters will not sit easily with the public. The possibility of merging all emergency services and their control rooms, on the other hand, just might have something to recommend it. The practice is common in Europe. Arguably, it could improve co-ordination and planning. Traditions, proud as they are, should not be impediments.
If further reforms fail to avert a looming crisis, responsibility falls on politicians. Arguments over the need for government economies are for another time. In matters of life and death, there is such a thing as a spending cut too far.
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