The SNP's pro-independence referendum campaign has, in effect, been going on since May 2007, moving up a gear since the party was returned to power at Holyrood this May.
The latest poll results by the Scottish Centre for Social Research suggest the party's efforts are having an effect: support for independence is now running at 32%, recovering to the level it was at when the SNP first came to power in 2007.
There is time between now and any referendum, of course, for the polls to change in both directions several times, as both politicians and pundits know. That being the case, psephologist-in-chief John Curtice has greeted the full findings of the research principally as evidence of a growing appetite for a more powerful Scottish Parliament, including independence, pointing out that if the SNP are to win any referendum, they must still convince the public of the economic case for leaving the union. All in all, behind the bluster and rhetoric, both camps are likely to conclude that there is still everything to play for.
So far, however, unlike the pro-independence drive, efforts to promote Scotland as part of the UK have made little impact, in spite of – or perhaps because of – interventions by figures at the highest level of the Westminster Government. In September, David Cameron convened the "quad", a Cabinet-within-the-Cabinet consisting of himself, Nick Clegg, George Osborne and Danny Alexander, which discussed Alex Salmond's bid to take Scotland out of the Union.
Speeches followed by the Scottish Secretary Michael Moore challenging the First Minister on the cost to Scots of independence and by Mr Alexander arguing an independent Scotland would have met "catastrophe" during the financial crash. Mr Osborne has since visited Scotland and so has Mr Cameron. Yet they are having precious little effect.
This is unsurprising, because a drive against independence felt to be coming from Westminster, particularly one fronted by unpopular Conservative ministers, is less likely to commend itself to Scottish voters than a cross-party one run in Scotland. What's more, there is also evidence that voters are turned off by politicians indulging in scare tactics.
What seems clear is that it will be the economy that dominates in the run-up to the referendum and in this respect, both sides carry a formidable responsibility.
If, as this latest polling evidence suggests, the economic arguments are likely to determine how people vote in any referendum on changing Scotland's constitutional arrangements, then it is essential in the public and national interest that the debate is conducted responsibly. Once Scots have cast their votes, there will be no going back. Great will be the temptation on both sides, in the thick of debate, to put on the frighteners, downplay serious concerns and avoid answering difficult questions relating to Scotland's economy. With Scotland's future at stake, however, campaigners must resist that temptation. It will be time, in due course, for the Scottish people to decide their future – and they are counting on those for and against independence to give them the best possible information on which to base that very important decision.
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