If 45% of voters believe Scotland's economic performance would be undermined by independence, that is a significant challenge for the Yes campaign.
With one year now until referendum day, the finding is plainly significant, not least taken in the context of other recent polling.
Earlier this week, 47% of voters told pollsters they would vote for independence if they were assured it would make them £500 better off a year. Meanwhile only 18% say they would vote Yes a year from now even if convinced they will be £500 worse off.
Those hypothetical answers take on greater weight in a context where approaching half of voters tend towards the latter scenario. A generally pessimistic view of an independent Scotland's economic prospects would suggest there is still a mountain for Yes Scotland to climb.
Today's report from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research does not make that ascent look any less daunting. Their latest analysis suggests that Scotland would start life post-independence more than £150 billion in debt and facing up to a decade of austerity measures.
One of the key tools that would help a future Holyrood government address this - Scotland's own currency - has already been ruled out, the Institute points out. With currency union planned with the pound, it seems unlikely a future Scottish Government could fulfil ambitions such as a more generous welfare state.
The don't-knows remain crucial in determining the outcome on referendum day. Another poll recently suggested a surge in the number declaring themselves undecided.
Pro-independence campaigners believe many don't-knows are ready to vote Yes next September, especially if they can be persusaded that the alternative is the status quo. If a No vote means no change at all, voters do not want it, they suggest.
But this contradicts a widespread perception that don't-knows are likely to opt for No, come the final reckoning. This view rests on a belief that a Yes vote is one where the heart rules the head, but that if they follow their heads, referendum voters are likely to be more cautious.
This seems realistic, since the polls suggest most people will decide on the basis of whether they believe independence will be personally better for their pockets.
Yes Scotland believes of course that both head and heart can be persuaded by the independence argument. But it is clear that the electorate have not yet been captivated by the practical or philosophical arguments around self-rule. A sense of inspiration, a vision of the exciting possibilities of a new Scotland, has been lacking from the rhetoric of either side.
In particular, it has been actively missing so far from the Yes campaign, which has majored on reassurance and an insistence that from currency to the monarchy to international travel, little will change should their cause carry the day.
The forthcoming referendum white paper, due in November, needs to provide a refreshed sense of vision.
Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says this official plan for independence will set out a comprehensive case, including addressing key issues such as a future Scottish tax system, pensions and economic strategy.
For a stalled Yes campaign, and in the wider interests of informed debate, it has never seemed more vital.
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