Is Scotland shopping again?

Last month, retail sales were up 3.5% on August 2012 - the best figures since 2009. That is good news for retailers - and could be good news for all of us if it indicates the beginnings of a sustained economic recovery - although we have been here before. Both John Swinney in Edinburgh and George Osborne in London have hailed signs of recovery in the past, only for the recovery to go flat again. The retail figures for August are welcome, but the bunting should stay in the box until some critical questions are answered.

The first question is: where is this retail spending coming from? It may be that consumers are spending again because they feel more confident - after all, there have been other indicators of recovery and perhaps these are lifting the economic mood.

What makes this less likely is the fact the bigger picture is still so dark: wages are stagnant, with no sign of change to come soon, unemployment is still relatively high at just over 7% and the worst of the benefit cuts are still to come, putting more pressure on household budgets. What this means is that the retail spending rise Scotland saw in August could well be fuelled by people digging into their savings or taking on more debt - and we all know where that led last time.

The second important question is: if the retail figures are a sign of recovery, how sustainable is it? There have undoubtedly been signs of recovery in the consumer sector and housing (albeit because the Government gave the engine a jump start with its help-to-buy scheme) but longer-term, recovery based on the idea of consuming more and more runs the risk of leading us right back into the same kind of bubble that burst in 2008. A healthier recovery would be based on exports and investment and the signs here are shaky. Scotland needs growth, but it has to be the right kind.

The third question around the retail figures is: what do they mean for Scotland's relationship with the rest of the UK and the independence referendum? Scotland's recovery has been lagging behind the rest of the UK for some time, but August's sales growth was in line with UK levels. The Scottish Government is always quick to claim the credit for economic good news, but will voters give them that credit? It could go one of two ways. Either, as the economy lifts, voters will become happier with the status quo and will be more likely to vote no; alternatively, if the improving economy also leads to an improvement in the polls for the Tories, that could help the Yes campaign.

The answers to all of these questions are still unclear. What is clear is that the economy is in better shape than it was last year. Mr Osborne said on Monday that it had turned the corner and there were tentative signs of a broad, sustainable recovery. If this is true, the retail figures for August may be one of those signs - although they could hardly be worse than 2012 when so many famous high-street chains went under.

The point is that the recovery is starting at a chronically low base and the economy is picking itself up slowly and tentatively. Retail sales will, and should, be part of that recovery but they can only be one of the ingredients. It is good news that consumers are out there spending a little more, but spending in the shops is no golden ticket to better times.