There are some clear explanations, and a few warnings, in the latest official statistics on fire deaths in Scotland.
The statistics show that 33 people were killed in fires in 2013-14, compared with 46 the previous year, a decrease of 28%. The figures also confirm the long-term downward trend in fire deaths in Scotland: 33 is the lowest number of annual fire deaths for more than 20 years.
The Scottish Government statistics are provisional and may need to be adjusted in due course, and the relatively small numbers involved can also lead to extreme fluctuations, but they do provide some probable explanations for the drop in fire deaths. The vast majority of those killed - 90% - died in house fires and the majority of those were accidental, with smoking materials and matches causing more than half and alcohol or drugs implicated in a quarter. The figures also show that almost half of all fatal casualties occurred where the smoke alarms in the house were faulty or not working, which should underline the importance of the fire service's educational and prevention programmes.
The fact that drinking and smoking are involved in most of the accidental house fires is not surprising, but the fact that fire deaths appear to be falling quickly is likely to be because of recent changes in how much Scots smoke and drink. An NHS Health Scotland report earlier this month showed alcohol consumption in Scotland has fallen by the equivalent of 38 million pints of beer a year since 2009. Drinking among young people is also at its lowest level ever recorded.
The figures on smoking are just as encouraging. The number of smokers has dropped dramatically since its height in the 1950s and 60s, when the habit was socially expected let alone acceptable, and, again, the figures for young people are particularly good. The most recent figures show that three-quarters of 15-year-olds report never having smoked, up from 45% in 2002.
Both of these trends will have had an impact on house fires, as people become less likely to be smoking at home and less likely to be intoxicated (and in this regard, Scotland's new tighter drink-drive limit could play its part). However we should not assume that the trends will continue in the right direction. Fire deaths may be at their lowest since current records began, but there are some warning signs that it may not always be that way.
The first is on alcohol. General consumption may be down, but the trend for some time now has been away from drinking to pubs towards drinking at home, with all its associated risks. And while smoking has also been falling, the use of e-cigarettes has been rising and the devices have already been implicated in hundreds of fires. It may be that stronger regulation of the devices will have to be considered.
None of this should dilute the positive story that the reduction in fire deaths represents, and if the trends in smoking and drinking continue, there should be every expectation that the rate of fire deaths will continue to fall. But alcohol consumption is still at problematic levels in Scotland - the average weekly amount is still well above the limit for women and we still drink much more than the English and Welsh - and where there is drinking, there will always be the risk of fire.
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