CRISIS IN THE CAUCASUS - Part 4: The global implications
By Trevor Royle, Diplomatic Editor

Like most crises that have afflicted Europe over the centuries, the conflict in Georgia has the potential for sparking a wider and more dangerous confrontation. While all-out war is not remotely on the cards, there is little doubt that the relationship between Moscow and Washington has worsened. What began as a petty squabble over the right to control the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has turned into some serious muscle-flexing by Russia and the US.

In response to Russia's military operations in Georgia, President George W Bush gave the sudden and unexpected order to deploy Patriot missile batteries in Poland, a move that prompted General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Russia's deputy chief of staff, to warn that it "cannot go unpunished". The inference was obvious. As a military commander Nogovitsyn regards the appearance of the Patriot batteries as a provocative move which threatens his own forces and he reacted accordingly. Poland has now been written into the targets of Russia's strategic missile force as a potential enemy.

Coming on top of Bush's continuing demands for the Russians to withdraw from Georgia this is a dangerous game of tit-for-tat which is bound to affect regional stability in eastern Europe. Unlike Georgia, Poland is a member of Nato and that means that any attack on it could not go unpunished by the alliance. As it happens the Patriots would be unable to counter Russian strategic missiles and are being placed in the country as part of the US missile shield to deter rogue nations, but the announcement of their presence is both untimely and provocative in Russia's eyes. To planners in the Kremlin it would be similar to Russia placing defensive missiles in Mexico.

At the same time, diplomacy is doing its best to push through a French-brokered peace accord which will force the Russians to withdraw and restore order in the war-torn areas of Georgia. On Friday, US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice flew to Tbilisi for talks with Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili and to pledge US support.

At the same time German chancellor Angela Merkel has warned President Dmitry Medvedev that Russia's military response has been disproportionate and must be scaled back.

In time, and given goodwill on all sides, it probably will be. Russia has got most of what it wanted and will be wary of pushing the West too far: Georgia has been humbled and South Ossetia and Abkhazia have retained their de facto autonomies.

At the same time, Russia has re-asserted its regional position and reminded the world that it is still a power to be reckoned with. Not only is it a major contributor to the world's economy through its burgeoning oil and gas industries, but it has also reminded the West that the Russian Bear still has claws, even if they are not as sharp as they were at the height of the Cold War.

The Russian leadership will feel they have come rather well out of a conflict which was sparked by a mixture of misunderstandings, opportunism, timing (bad and good) and muddled responses.

The first mistake was made by Saakashvili who allowed himself to be goaded by Russian military incursions in South Ossetia. Thinking to end the problem once and for all he ordered his forces to crush the South Ossetians and, in so doing, paved the way for Russia to intervene not just there, but also in Georgia.

Prime minister Vladimir Putin needed no second invitation to unleash Russian forces. During his presidency he had become increasingly irritated by Georgia's bid to integrate with the EU and Nato and Saakashvili's rash action gave him the excuse he needed. At the same time it sent an unmistakable message to other neighbouring countries which had thrown in their lot with the West or had applications pending to join the EU or Nato. Whatever the outcome, Saakashvili's clout has been weakened, perhaps irreparably.

The fact that the world's attention has been diverted by the Beijing Olympics helped Putin. Like Bush he was in China for the opening ceremony where the two men met. The Russian prime minister did not divulge his intentions, or if he did Bush was slow to understand the consequences. From that moment onwards, Washington was playing catch-up and it was never likely that there would be any talk of a military response other than to use US aircraft and ships to deliver humanitarian aid.

If any sign were needed that Bush has done as much as possible within the present diplomatic constraints, the evidence was at Tbilisi airport where US transporters unloaded their cargoes of blankets, food and medical aid. For the time being, and provided that there are no further flare-ups, those represent the limits of the US response and both sides seem to know it.