SO you're outside a tenement block, a property virgin, a first-time buyer, an FTB. Other FTBs are gathered at the entrance, property pages in their hands. You greet each other, but not too much, in anticipation that they, not you, might seal the deal. Nervously, you push through the broken security door, making a joke about how it doesn't quite tally with the picture in the estate agent's window. You don't care, you still want it. As you climb the stairs, your expectations begin to wane. You turn and smile at your partner, at the other FTBs. Why the broken bicycles? Why the loud banging in Number 25? You don't care, you want it. The flat itself is on the top floor - they usually are. As you arrive, before even chapping the door of number 58, you hear voices, older voices, the voices of property developers, tradespeople, doing it better and more convincingly than you.
At the sharp end, the housing market is anincreasinglydesperateplace."It's becoming virtually impossible for first-time buyersbecausehousepriceshave increased much more than salaries over the last five years," says Frances Donnelly, managing director of Tip Top Lettings. "Around 90% of first-time buyer flats now are going to buy-to-let landlords or parents of children at university who want their child to cover the mortgage rather than paying rent to someone else."
Figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders show there were 2000 successful FTBs across Scotland in February, 500 down on the previous month and the lowest number for nearly two years. According to a survey by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 50% of FTBs are now simply priced out of the market and left for dead.
With the average cost of property in Scotland standing at £143,000, give or take a fiver, the spikes last year were sharp, as they have been consecutively for a decade. In 2006, Glasgow saw a 9.5% jump in house prices and Edinburgh 14%. In Dundee the increase was 16.5%, and in Aberdeen 23.9%. The hike since the start of this year has already hit 5% and is set to double again by December.
Extreme mortgages based on five times an annual wage, and repayment packages spreadover40years,arebecoming commonplace but still leave many short of the bottom rung. Waiting for the bubble to burst - as we're told it must - is an expensive game. Even the option of settling for a one-bedroom flat with a missing ceiling has become a non-starter.
"Everyone wants to be a property developer because of TV shows like Changing Rooms," says Donnelly. "Flats that need a bit of work, that young couples could have bought and done up as they went along, are going for well over the asking price. Investors are holding onto those properties now for five or 10 years because they know they'll get a better growth rate for their money than putting it in a bank. It's grim, it's a shame."
She's right. Outside one Glasgow estate agent's, two FTBs huddle together. They look elated, because they've just had their offer for a flat accepted, and terrified, because they fear there might still be hitches. Lauren Fleming, a funding administrator, and Roger Pons Funken, a finance assistant, have put their hopes into a flat in Glasgow's Merchant City. With a provisional entry date of May 18, the countdown has truly begun.
"We've visited at least 50 properties, and sometimes five or six a day after work," says Funken. "I've felt stress, anger, happiness, the lot. It takes over your life and it's hard to concentrate on anything else."
To date, Scotland's offers-over system has scupperedthemateveryturn.The expectation is that buyers will offer 20% over the asking price, regardless of the property or its condition. But knowing that, those who can afford it will offer more, and those who expect such competition, and have bigger pockets, will go one better. In this couple's case, the flat they originally wanted in Glasgow's south side - with a price tag of £100,000 - went for £140,000 within days. Their survey costs - at around £400 for a Scheme II evaluation - went down the drain.
"We started with a fairly low budget but have had to go up by around 50% to £155,000," says Fleming. At roughly four times their combined wage, it's a stretch, and one many prospective house-buyers now have to make. "Obviously we won't be able to go out every night but hopefully we can still afford to eat," she says. "But I think we'reprobablybetteroffthansome first-time buyers because we've managed to save a bit of money and have a deposit to put down."
In their case, those savings were accumulated during a stint living with Fleming's parents; for others it's not so easy. AccordingtoGumtree.com,theUK'sbusiest flatshare website, lodger numbers have boomed across Scotland in the last six months, with a 169% rise in flatshare ads on their Edinburgh site. The surge is down to those who can't afford a property of their own and those who have bought a property and have a spare room but need a lodger to help them meet their repayments. Couch surfing - the latest craze in London, where, for around £25 a week, deposit-strapped FTBs can live on someone's sofa - is coming soon, to Scotland.
"It's something we're looking to introduce in Edinburgh very soon," says Gumtree's communication manager Sophy Silver. "We've had several enquiries and there's definitely a demand for it, and we'd be looking to roll it out to other Scottish cities." There are lots of reasons to try couch surfing, she says, not least the chance to gather funds for that first house. "It's a great market for lodgers to be in at the moment because there's lots of choice. It means they can really get the best deal possible until they can save enough money for a deposit."
But - as one property ad puts it - why rent when you can buy? Since the relevant two-bedroom apartments are priced at £179,000, and a three-bedroom "duplex" is on offer at £325,000, that's an easy enough question to answer. For those who have been stuck in the rent trap for years, a more pertinent question might be why, or how, to buy. Paying around £450 a month in rent, let's say, over a 10-year period, works out at £54,000, which, ironically, could have bought you a decent pad 10 years ago. Instead, as Anne Robinson might put it, you leave with nothing. You should have bought a few years ago, friends tell you, but you didn't. You didn't want the responsibility, theweightroundyourneck.Untilit dawned - too late - that there's always a millstone.Unlessyouhaveinherited property, or live in a monastery, you will always pay the man, or woman, at a given time of the month. Whether rented or bought, your house is at risk if you don't keep up repayments.
In the olden days, finding a home came down to jumping on a horse, racing other speculators and planting a flag to claim your land. If anything, the modern version is more competitive and is leading to ever more inventive tactics. Legal secretary Becky Adam commutes 40 minutes to work from Alford to Aberdeen every morning. She has put in more than 25 offers for flats in the city over the last year, all "subject to survey", and has been outbid every time. Earlier this year, she took the dramatic step of writing directly to homeowners, urging them to sell, outlining the benefits of bypassing estate agents and selling to her directly. The catch? A budget of £75,000.
"I've posted around 700 letters so far but have had little response," she says. "I've been targeting certain areas where the whole street would get a letter, whether or not their house was for sale. I've had two responses, and did go to see one, but it was really unsuitable. The other one sounded promising, and I got in touch with the woman selling it, but I never heard anything further. It just seems impossible but I know there are other people in this situation and I'm not the only one."
The upshot is that sellers these days can afford to be complacent. On average, they can expect around four bids for their property within a week of going on sale. Homestake, a shared equity scheme, where those earning less than £20,000 a year can split ownership of their property with their local authority, is currently being piloted in Edinburgh and the Lothians. And not without reason. Council properties in the capital currently attract up to 500 bids each, with one in the city's Stenhouse area receiving more than 750bidslastmonth.Housingcharity Shelter has called for 30,000 affordable rented homes to be built across Scotland, and for a greater range of options for the desperate FTB.
"If people choose home ownership that's OK but it's not great if the only option is to mire yourself in debt," says Shelter Scotland director Archie Stoddart. "We've seen 17 consecutive years now of house price rises in Scotland and people are increasingly locked into more complex forms of debt. The salary multipliers are going up and people are extending their mortgage repayments far beyond the typical 25-year term."
Ideally, FTBs would be assigned a Kirstie Allsopp or Phil Spencer (of Channel 4's Location, Location, Location) to find the best place for them within budget, presenting the aspiring property virgin with three suitable options, and sorting out the difficult paperwork. Most of us would be happy knowing what and who we have to pay each month but are pummelled instead with base rates, equity statistics and variables. It's what we might call "adult business", which is appropriate given that the average age of FTBs is now mid-to-late 30s. Helen Manley, 38, and her husband Kenneth, 46, are at the outside edge of the average. They got married last year and both work full-time in the social care sector. The housing association house they'd been expecting to be allocated failed to materialise and - with a baby due in October - they have a ladder, if not a mountain, to climb.
"Prices are just mad at the minute," says Kenneth Manley. "It's quite daunting to be entering into a mortgage at our age when the first-time buyer loan is about £120,000. Obviously it's the biggest commitment you're going to make in your life and we're now in a race against time. Being older, you want to clear your debts so you can enjoy your retirement, so we want to get our mortgage paid off in 20 years."
Though the couple earn a "substantial wage", and have a mortgage agreed in principle, they are not in a position to buy a detached or semi-detached house. "We couldn't afford it," Helen Manley says. "I feel quite sick because it's a lot of money to borrow and you never know what's going to happen. You assume that you're always going to work but you just never know."
Finding a place is the next step, although the likelihood is that, if it's any good, it will already have gone. Viewing may be essential, they tell you, but that's usually about all you'll get. According to property website Primemove.com, the "cappuccino effect" - once used as an indicator of an area's upmarket credentials based on the proximity of trendy coffee bars - has been replaced byfactorssuchastheavailabilityof vegetarian pizzas and alternative medical practitioners. But with the prediction that by 2026 only 35% of 30-something couples will be able to afford their own homes, most would be happy with a kettle. For Funken and Fleming, such concerns might soon be academic. Barring catastophes, they are about to own their own home, or at least start paying through the nose for it.
"It's been so much harder than we imagined," says Funken. "Some days you want to give up, lock yourself in a room and cry, but you just have to keep picking yourself up. We still need to get our mortgage sorted out, and then deal with the solicitors and missives, so we're keeping our fingers crossed. Until we have the keys, on May 18, we're not taking anything for granted."












