£295m proposal �not a viable project�, claim opponentsBy Rob Edwards, Environment Editor
Plans to build a new rail link from Edinburgh to the Borders have been damned as deeply flawed in a secret government report passed to the Sunday Herald.
An expert analysis concluded that the business case for the proposed £295 million Waverley line was "very poor". It was riddled with "significant mathematical and methodological errors" and was founded on "inappropriate application of economic techniques".
The 35-mile Waverley line was proposed by the former Labour and Liberal Democrat executive, but has been endorsed by the SNP government. A half-hourly service is scheduled to run from the centre of Edinburgh to Tweedbank, near Galashiels, from 2013.
The report was compiled by Cyril Sweett, a London-based international construction and property consultancy. Sections of an analysis it conducted for the government agency, Transport Scotland, in August 2007 have been released in response to a request under freedom of information legislation.
The report said the costs of the project had been underestimated, the management had been inadequate and that much vital information was missing.
"The technical and financial elements of the business case are not considered as robust as they should have been," it said. "The progress that would normally have been expected to be made in the implementation and delivery of the Border project has not been achieved, leading to evident frustration in Transport Scotland."
The logic of the plan had "a number of potentially significant flaws", the report claimed. "The programme is overly optimistic and not robust in its structure."
Among the problems identified were underestimates of the cost of land or the effect of inflation. No provision seemed to have been made for buying land necessary for connecting the Borders line to existing tracks, the report said.
The rail link plan rested on "significant unexplained growth" in demand for new homes in the Borders, the report argued. Assumptions implied rush-hour trains would become overcrowded, with some expected to be carrying double their maximum capacity by 2035.
The report has been seized on by opponents of the rail link. "Nearly every MSP has been hoodwinked by a poor business case," claimed Peter Smaill, an equity project specialist from Midlothian who asked for the report from Transport Scotland.
"In UK terms this is not a viable railway project. The economics were all over the place before but they are now even more questionable. There is an aroma of figures being made to fit a political agenda."
Smaill complained that most of the detailed finances of the scheme had been kept under wraps. The only way Transport Scotland could now make it look viable was to "suppress" data as commercial in confidence, he claimed.
Others agreed the project had been flawed, but hoped it would go ahead in an improved form. "Many of the criticisms in this report are valid," said David Spaven, a member of the Waverley Route Trust, set up to encourage debate about how to reopen the line. "We've long had doubts about the way this scheme has been managed. To survive and prosper the Borders rail link needs to be rethought, and we're hopeful that under the new management of Transport Scotland that will happen."
Transport Scotland officially took over management of the project last month from the Waverley Rail Partnership, set up by local authorities. The Sweett report was part of a review by the agency before it took control.
The review found the business case "did not reflect the most up-to-date information, for example on patronage levels, train timetabling and expected housing developments", said a Transport Scotland spokeswoman.
The agency therefore overhauled the business case, which improved the project's cost/benefit ratio. "Market testing is currently under way which will shape the procurement process by understanding private-sector capability and gauge market interest," she added.
The Green Party argued that the rail line should be extended all the way to Carlisle, and not end at Tweedbank. Even with its problems, the current plan was "a step in the right direction", said Green MSP Patrick Harvie.
Tomorrow, a group of six environmental groups will call on Scottish ministers to end their bias towards building roads and expanding airports and invest in walking, cycling, buses and trains. In a letter to the transport minister, Stewart Stevenson, the groups are demanding a halt to the growth in air travel.
Colin Howden, director of the transport campaign, Transform Scotland, claimed recent decisions to abolish bridge tolls and hospital parking charges were encouraging people to drive.
"A genuinely strategic approach to transport would focus on reducing reliance on fossil fuels and tackling the country's obesity crisis," he said.
Dave du Feu, of the Spokes cycling campaign, pointed out that for years governments have been spending less than 1% of their transport budgets on cycling. "Whilst comparable countries in northern Europe have seen cycle use rising to 10%-30% of all journeys, Scotland as a whole has seen cycling remain at miserably low levels.
"In Scotland's capital, bike use forms only 2% of travel, while in Amsterdam and Copenhagen 27% and 29% of trips are made by bike. It's surely no coincidence the Dutch and Danes have levels of obesity half that seen in Scotland."
The Scottish government stressed that it was balancing the need to cut pollution and increase economic growth. "We are building new rail lines, improving the bus network and putting money into other forms of sustainable travel such as cycling and walking," said a spokesman.
