With the global population now at seven billion – and growing – the burning question is how to feed the world.
There are the issues of spiralling transport, energy and cereal prices, which are prompting countries to work on how they can produce enough home-grown cereals and grains to enable them to cut down on imports.
In world terms Scotland is relatively small, yet it punches above its weight in its ability to deliver high-end produce across the world, as well as in scientific research and intellectual property.
Sales of Scottish food and drink brands worldwide have grown by 28% in the past two years. The Middle East, for example, is now the largest market for smoked Scottish salmon outside the EU.
The appetite for red meat in the Far East is increasing as growing wealth drives massive dietary change. In China, there are 150 cities with a population larger than Scotland. This presents a real opportunity for Scotland, which aims not only to boost sales within the UK but double exports over a 10-year period. How to produce more with finite resources?
The Scottish Food Security Alliance is a group of three research organisations – the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen, the Rowett Institute of Nutrition and Health at the University of Aberdeen and the University of Dundee – which aims to address that question.
Although they've all being doing work for several years, they have now launched as a formal group. Their aim is to provide practical solutions for the agricultural industry, and the knowledge which will inform decisions by policy-makers and funding bodies. Tackling sustainable crop production is its first priority.
I was interested to discover that Scotland leads the way in agricultural research while other countries have withdrawn from this. I asked crop geneticist Professor Robbie Waugh of the University of Dundee and James Hutton Institute about the potential for Scotland growing bread-quality wheat in addition to what is currently grown, a weaker version used mainly for animal feed.
Barley has the greater immediate potential for bread production, and grows well in Scotland; making up 50% of arable crops.
At the moment most of it is sold to distilleries and breweries for alcohol production, and for animal feed. But much work is being done in the north-west of the US on how to make barley a key ingredient in mass-produced food, as it is in Scandinavia – both regions that are on a similar latitude to Scotland.
However, growing barley of alcohol and animal-feed quality has forced down levels of soluble carbohydrate (beta-glucan) – a natural property that helps the body fight cancer and disease, helps the gut and is good for lowering cholesterol.
Good quality barley for barley bread – wheat bread that contains 20% barley – has been trialled with good results, but due to its density and flavour it is probably destined to stay a niche product. But if we could change bread production to just 5% barley flour and 95% wheat flour, we could save billions of euros in imported wheat.
The growth of the boutique distillery and craft brewery is also giving rise to increased demand for Scots barley. In this market provenance is crucial and people happily pay a premium.
As ever in academia, everything depends on research funding.
Although potatoes aren't a hugely significant crop in Scotland, Scottish-grown seed potatoes are being sent across the world, to places with diseases and viruses, aphids and blight. Work is also ongoing on soil science, with a view to improving the efficiency of fertilisers.
If the biggest global challenge is the need to increase world food production to feed the burgeoning population, then increasing crop production and yield is at the centre of meeting this need, so a good understanding of soil fertility and chemistry is vital.
It's encouraging to think that a small country like Scotland might become better recognised as the world centre for research into feeding the world. And, of course, itself.
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