Political future changing as population growth brings new confidence to the north and west
Unique constituency revels in independent spirit
IT is the size of Belgium, they like to tell you, and rather harder to get around. Oddly, the Belgians rarely compare themselves with the Highlands and Islands.
That is because there is nowhere quite like it, and that goes for its politics too. Vast constituencies combine pockets of profound social conservatism with long-standing traditions of radicalism stretching back at least to 19th century land reform movements. Both conservatism and radicalism are often found in the same people.
Of course, the Highlands are changing. Forty years of statist activism has left some economic white elephants, but it has also instilled a confidence into the region, which has brought population growth.
In particular, Inverness is a city transformed and transforming. Labour hopes it will act politically as the urban centre it has become, by which the party means it should become more Labour, but all four main parties hope to benefit.
The independent councillors who have long run Highland Council represent the region's tradition of eschewing party politics. Parties have thrived where they have installed incumbents and given them a free rein. Once dug in and with high profile in their communities, Highlanders tend to be loyal to the representatives they know. The 2003 result changed little in the Highlands and Islands from 1999. Most constituency outcomes look relatively predictable.
Liberal Democrats offer the safest umbrella for the independently minded, while Fergus Ewing has followed the example of his mother, Winnie, by ploughing his own furrow on the right of his party and through the Highlands.
His Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber was recently the closest-fought four-way marginal in Britain (that distinction now goes to Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale.) Lib Dems held the seat at Westminster until 1997 and, in 2005, Danny Alexander gained back the Inverness version of it under new boundaries, without Lochaber.
At the 2003 election, however, the LibDems were knocked into fourth place on only 16%. It would be a tough call to challenge Mr Ewing, but Craig Harrow, who was Mr Alexander's agent, is giving it a go.
One of the reasons for the Highlands' growth in the past 30 years is the building of the A9 north from Perth. Its success has become one of the big issues for Mr Ewing, as the SNP transport spokesman, with pressure for an upgrade of road and rail links between the north and the central belt.
Argyll and Bute also used to be hard fought by all four main parties. But the SNP's presence has declined, and Labour and the Tories appear to be putting their resources elsewhere, giving LibDem George Lyon less to worry about.
Another four constituencies look more or less safe for LibDem incumbents: Jamie Stone in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is in the less safe category, with a 2092 majority over Labour, though that is a 10% gap. John Farquhar Munro in Ross, Skye and Inverness West, also on the maverick wing of the party, saw his vote soar by 10% in 2003 and can claim to have forced the Scottish Executive's hand in removing tolls from the Skye Bridge.
Both seats are coveted by Labour, which will want to put down an electoral marker for future elections, even though Maureen Macmillan, the two-term Labour list MSP, fell from second to third place at the last election in the Ross-shire seat. While this may be her retiral from Holyrood, she is back to face the LibDem.
Tavish Scott lacks much competition for Shetland, allowing him to run the LibDem campaign nationally, while the departure from Holyrood of former party leader and Deputy First Minister Jim Wallace is likely to hand the Orkney seat to his former special adviser Liam MacArthur.
Moray forms part of the Highland area for electoral purposes. Having had its by-election last year, following the death of Margaret Ewing, the SNP's Richard Lochhead has enhanced the Nationalist position.
Tory Mary Scanlon hopes to do better this time, but as she is top of the Conservatives' regional list and looks a safe bet for a return to Holyrood, she has less riding on the Moray result than in last year's by-election.
Labour, meanwhile, claims some strengths in Moray, and is highlighting the dim prospects for the Lossiemouth and Moray RAF air bases in an independent Scotland, particularly as the SNP's Angus Robertson is national campaign manager.
On the party lists, Labour can expect to return at least two MSPs, while targeting a return to the three list seats it had before 2003. Peter Peacock is again at the top of the list, after stepping down as a minister. Rhoda Grant hopes for a return from second place, having lost out from third place last time. Unlike 2003, Labour rules are not being bent to allow them to stand for constituencies as well.
If Labour wins a third place, that would go to David Stewart, who lost the Inverness seat at Westminster. His wife, Linda, is standing against Fergus Ewing, while Maureen Macmillan's husband, Michael, is in an unwinnable fifth place on the Labour list.
To continue the family theme, Rob Gibson, a one-term SNP list MSP, returns to battle his own partner, Eleanor Scott, who was elected a Green MSP four years ago.
