People forget that when George W Bush ran for election in 2000, he was a moderate with a message of "compassionate conservatism".

People forget that when George W Bush ran for election in 2000, he was a moderate with a message of "compassionate conservatism".

Dubya hoped to win over a middle America impressed by his promise to be the first MBA president, concentrating on domestic issues and efficient government.

A born-again Christian who gave up tobacco, alcohol and drugs at age 40, Mr Bush seemed to herald a break from the excesses of the Clinton White House and the Lewinsky scandal.

Mr Bush trumpeted his ability to "reach across the aisle", citing his ability to win bipartisan support while Texas governor and offered a similar message to his father who had promised a "kinder, gentler America".

Today, with an approval rating of just 38%, the economy in its worst crisis since the Great Depression and entwined in two morale- sapping wars abroad, his legacy seems very different.

The bipartisanship never really materialised. Karl Rove, his widely reviled but much copied, deputy chief of staff managed to create a durable Republican majority, uniting evangelicals, with national "security moms" and blue- collar "Reagan Democrats".

Their victory in 2000, decided by hanging chads and the Supreme Court, meant many felt the 43rd President did not have a mandate to rule. But by 2004, similar tactics, including the infamous Swift Boating of John Kerry, turned Mr Bush into a two-term President - the starting point when judging the success of any presidency. Even in 2008, the coalition formed by Mr Rove still looked like giving the Republicans a sizeable popular vote of more than 40%.

There is little doubt that September 11, 2001, was the formative moment in the Bush presidency. There was the endlessly replayed scene infamously mocked by Michael Moore of chief of staff Andrew Card whispering in the President's ear that America was under attack before Mr Bush continued to read a children's story book at an elementary school.

Despite the initial panic, Mr Bush's simple, plain-spoken message that after 9/11 "you are either with us or against us" in the battle against an "axis of evil" struck a chord with an America which wanted decisive leadership.

Mr Bush's popularity set a new record high when a Gallup poll gave him a 90% approval rating - higher than Truman at the end of the Second World War, and higher than the President's own father at the close of the first Gulf Conflict.

Many in the world echoed the message "we're all Americans now". Mr Bush and his secretary of state Colin Powell managed to win United Nations backing for the war in Afghanistan and the overthrowing of the Taliban.

Defenders of Mr Bush see him as a "wartime President", fighting against "Islamo- fascism". They can point to a new Department of Homeland Security and reorganised intelligence services. They are quick to point out there has been no successful second attack on American soil, something few thought possible in the wake of 9/11.

Yet the price of the newly described "war on terror" has been high. The creation of Guantanamo Bay, the sexual torture at Abu Graib, secret CIA prisons, the use of techniques such as waterboarding and rendition flights, has led to revulsion around the world.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is in custody but has not been tried. Bin Laden has been neither captured nor killed and the Taliban are resurgent in Afghanistan.

The 2003 war in Iraq, with its non-existent weapons of mass destruction, became one of the world's most divisive issues. Here there was no clear UN mandate and millions around the world marched to oppose what they saw as an illegal war.

Saddam Hussein was overthrown, but despite the triumphant "mission accomplished" message, Iraq slipped into a bloody civil war. Mr Bush can boast free elections and the relative success of his surge in troop levels in stemming the sectarian violence, but so far 5000 Americans, more than 100 Britons and countless Iraqis have been killed.

For most of the Bush years, the economy grew strongly and unemployment reached a 20-year low. But as he leaves office, the sub-prime crisis has led to the partial nationalisation of many of the US's banks, crashes in stock market valuations, and thousands of Americans losing their homes.

For Conservatives, the Bush tax cuts are a sign that he was prepared to contine the policies of Reagan and keep the economy growing. His opponents argue it unleashed a wave of greed which toppled some of Wall Street's biggest names.

But Mr Bush was no small government conservative. Under his presidency, the government made significant moves to increase spending in education programmes such as No Child Left Behind and the Medicare prescription drug plan. Abroad he spent huge sums on Aids prevention in Africa.

For his opponents, Mr Bush's response to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath symbolised failure in social policy and the lack of spending on infrastructure.

Many, on both the left and right, feel that Mr Bush's court appointments will be his most lasting legacy. By the end of his second term, Mr Bush will have appointed more than half of the Appellate and US district judges. He has already filled two seats on the US Supreme Court and may appoint one more. The impact on future decision including the touchstone issue of Roe versus Wade and abortion may be profound.

Ronald Reagan was fond of asking: "Do you feel better off than four years ago?" Judged in that way, it is hard to make a case for Mr Bush as a successful President.

"History will judge me," has been Mr Bush's comment. He can take some comfort in Harry S Truman, who had even lower pubic approval in 1952, but in the recent years has seen his reputation much restored.

Will history "misunderestimate" Dubya? We will get the first indication today. The verdict of the American people in electing a new president is the beginning of the judgment on his legacy.