Clinton pollster�s key role in PM�s decision to ditch election plans

Private polling conducted by Bill Clinton'sformerpollsterwhich testedLabour'sstrengthinkey marginal constituencies convinced Gordon Brown to call off an early election yesterday.

Stan Greenberg, once part of President Clinton's advisory team, offered Brown the advice even his own Cabinet colleagues and regularpollingstaffhadbeencautious about. He told Brown at the end of last week: "Go now and you could lose your majority."

Targeting100marginals, mainly in the south and southeast of England, the seats that would essentially decide the outcome of an autumn election, Greenberg found the summer fortunes of Brown - up during crises, and up after Labour's Bournemouth conference-mayhaveoverestimated Labour's popularity under their new leader. But after the Tories' pledge to increase the threshold for inheritance tax andDavidCameron'shighlypraised leader's speech in Blackpool, Greenberg's research found Labour'sfortuneshadsignificantly dipped, and by enough to put Brown's 69 majority at severe risk.

A summary of Greenberg's findings was given to Downing Street on Friday, and the prime minister was expectedtostudyamoredetailedversionat Chequers this weekend. The analysis was expected to tell Brown his decision, taken three weeks ago, to hold an election on November 1 was correct. However, it said the opposite.

There was to have been an announcement this Tuesday after a Commons statement on troop reductions in Iraq and two reports by the chancellor, Alistair Darling, on Britain's immediate and long-term spending plans. The Commons statements will go ahead, but Brown has called off the election.

In an interview with the BBC's Andrew Marr, to be shown today, he said: "I'll not be calling an election. I have a vision for change in Britain and I want to show people how in government we're implementing it."

In addition to Greenberg's advice, the leadingUSpollster,MarkPenn, currently advising Hillary Clinton on her presidential campaign, also advised Brown that he would be better waiting.

Penn, who advised Tony Blair during the 2005 election, described Brown'spollingnumbersas"soft"because voters did not know much about him.

Brown's speech in Downing Street yesterday echoed what Penn believed Brown should do; wait and see the benefits on being "judged by performance".

The fallout from the PM's climbdown will be magnified by a poll in today's News of the World, which parallels the bad news in Greenberg'sreport.TheICMpollfor the newspaper looked at 83 marginal seats and suggested Tory candidates would defeat 49 Labour MPs. Once thesefigureswereextended,they predicted Brown would lose Labour's majority and face a hung parliament.

Overall, the polls reversed Labour's strong showing in recent weeks which had led to Brown refocusing on a possible election, turning it from a tactic designed to destabilise David Cameron's Tories into a serious opportunity to quickly win a fourth consecutive Labour term.

The new poll put the Conservatives on 44%, and Labour on 38. Although the forecast shows Labour fortunes relatively stable, there is a striking rise of Tory support that appears to have followed Cameron's speech and his pledge to raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1m.

In addition to ruling out an autumn poll this year, the prime minister hinted that a poll next year was also unlikely, meaning he will stay at Number 10 until 2009 before he risks another election.

But whether the damage to his credibility is short-lived or not, and whether he has reinforced his reputation to be politically hesitant at difficult times, Brown's decision to call off an election, for which well-advanced plans had been made, will damage Labour's morale both in the parliamentary party and throughout the country.

It will also re-energise the debate on constitutional change that has seen demands for an end to the system where resident prime ministers have the power to call an election when it best suits them, and not necessarily the country.