Analysys: Labour will elect a new Scottish leader tomorrow, and the party will be hoping for a clear-cut victor.

Labour will elect a new Scottish leader tomorrow, and the party will be hoping for a clear-cut victor.

If it is a close-run affair there could be embarrassment over the handling of the union vote, after The Herald learned that the two biggest unions in Scotland may have sent ballot papers to members who are not entitled to vote.

Both Unison and Unite unions are said to have sent ballot papers out asking recipients to self-certify that they are entitled to vote, an anomaly given that they should only have sent out papers to those members who have signed up to the Labour Party levy in the first place.

The last thing Labour needs after its travails of recent months is a glitch tomorrow. The problem is the incredibly complicated nature of the Labour procedure.

Under this, all the Labour MSPs, MPs and MEPs cast their vote for the candidates. The result of this contest will then make up one-third of the final electoral college calculation, and by declared support Iain Gray appears to have a strong lead in this section.

There are then the individual members of the party, each with a postal vote. This vote is incredibly unpredictable, but both Cathy Jamieson and Andy Kerr may expect to do better in this.

Then there is the final third - the trade union affiliates. This should be a chance for only those union members who are signed up to affiliate membership to cast their vote. There was much talk early on of Iain Gray securing the support of union leaders, thanks to his good connections with Downing Street.

But no-one has any real idea how individual union members will vote. They may well choose to go their own way and ignore the guidance of their leaderships.

Dave Watson of Unison, who is also chairman of the party in Scotland, said he was confident that any of the anecdotal claims about union ballots going to non-members was not a widespread problem.

The union votes could amount to as many as 350,000, individual membership is claimed to be about 18,000, while there are around 90 parliamentarians involved.

If any of the three candidates wins in all three sections it will be good news for Labour, but the likelihood of this is slight. More likely is that, say, Iain Gray will win the parliamentarians section and unions, but fail to take the individual members, which could be perceived as damaging. Alternatively, Cathy Jamieson or Andy Kerr could take a majority of the grassroots but not win overall.

All three agreed yesterday that the contest had been worthwhile compared with previous "coronations" and would aid the process of recovery.

Ms Jamieson said: "The hustings have been so good for the party, giving everyone the opportunity to think and speak out loud about policy and to really engage with the party."

Andy Kerr said: "When you reflect on it, it was a very worthwhile exercise for the members and for the campaign teams given that it was done in the right spirit. Policy discussions, comradeship between the contenders, and a desperate desire for us to take the battle to Alex Salmond."

Iain Gray added: "At the start everyone said we needed to have a contest and a debate and that has been proved right. It's been very positive and heartening that people wanted to know what we would do to take the party forward."

Tomorrow, one of the three will be declared new Holyrood leader, with either Bill Butler or Johann Lamont as deputy. After that battle, they will go into the front line against Alex Salmond.

The Contenders

Iain Gray: Had by far the best launch, as Labour's proud East Lothian tradition kicked in and his support from MSPs, MPs and MEP's seemed to make him a shoo-in. In first term in the parliament was a Dewar trusty, serving in health, justice and enterprise briefs, but lost Edinburgh Pentlands to the Tories and spent time out as staffer with the Scotland Office. Great launch but never a stand-out in the hustings. May suffer from being seen as a Brown patsy.

Cathy Jamieson: Party darling, entered the parliament as a left-winger but became deputy leader on death of Donald Dewar. As Justice Minister spearheaded the anti-social behaviour onslaught. Started this campaign slowly but will pick up trade union and grassroots support which will see her there or thereabouts come the declaration. Must overcome unfair stereotypes about her as an Ayrshire wifie.

Andy Kerr: Bruiser candidate, in the nicest way. If they decide to take Alex Salmond head-on they will go with Andy Kerr, who began life as a Unison official and ended up one of the biggest defenders of private finance. As such he has been withering about SNP's alternatives to private finance. Strong finish to campaign and may play well with ordinary members. Problem with a bruiser is he may walk on to a punch.