UNDERCURRENT: Patrick Reilly

That old marriage, once apparently made in heaven, between Labour as the party of the poor and Catholics as their foremost clients, seems to be heading for the rocks. It is like waking up married to a stranger, and to an unfriendly stranger at that. It is indisputable that a substantial and growing number of Scottish Catholics no longer instinctively turn to Labour.

That old conditioned reflex of unhesitatingly putting an X against the Labour candidate's name is fast fading. The deterioration has been caused, in part, by changes within the Catholic community, but in even greater measure by a seismic upheaval within Labour itself. The shorthand for this is New Labour.

Catholic defection is not the sole cause of the Labour collapse within Scotland, but it is a significant contribution. Labour has only itself to blame for squandering the almost unconditional loyalty given to the party by the Scottish Catholic community. If you kick a man in the teeth you must not expect him to fall about your neck in gratitude.

Yet one must not exaggerate. Not only do higher proportions of Catholics vote for Labour, higher proportions of Catholics campaign for Labour. Yet Catholics no longer look with total confidence to Labour as defenders against their enemies. Some would say that Labour has unnervingly become the enemy.

For one thing, there has been the emergence of an increasingly self-confident Catholic middle class. There are still many poor Catholics, but they are Catholics who happen to be poor, not poor because they are Catholics.

New Labour has similarly ceased to be the party of the poor. The decision of its chieftains to loosen old traditional loyalties as the precondition for electoral victory has led to a wholly transformed political situation.

In previous ages Catholics looked right to discern their enemies. Sectarian bigots attacked Catholics for being Catholic - which is why Catholics turned to Labour as their surest protectors. Now, shockingly, they are forced to look left to identify their enemies. Catholics are attacked now for being Christian by left-wing ideologues who wish to eradicate religion itself.

Catholics are abandoning Labour now only because Labour first abandoned them. And with the SNP serenading the Catholic community I suppose it's just as well New Labour believes in easy divorce and partnerships, because this is one marriage which is all but over.

Patrick Reilly is emeritus professor of English Language and Literature, the University of Glasgow