Voters left wondering who to credit for capital's economic boom
Political spotlight falls on Scotland's capital
POLITICAL battlegrounds shift around Scotland. The north-east was the focus of attention four years ago, but this year it is the capital that is probably the part of Scotland deserving the most attention.
That is partly because Edinburgh is changing, and the political challenge comes with its booming economy and prosperity. A strong economy ought to benefit those in power, if they can take the credit for it but, in Edinburgh, it is not quite that simple.
The economic boom has left some behind, most notably those struggling to afford housing. This is one area where plans to help first-time buyers will be most closely watched. Another result has been that there is a shortage of privately-run care homes for the elderly, as developers convert them for private sale.
The most obvious result of Edinburgh's strong economy is traffic. The Labour-run council's attempt to tackle that with a congestion charge and city centre road closures backfired badly, meaning Labour candidates for Holyrood may not want to link themselves too closely with their council colleagues - even though retiring councillors are also those fighting target Holyrood seats.
Another answer to the traffic problems is improved rail services and the return of trams after an absence of nearly 50 years. The SNP has said it would scrap the tram proposals and the underground rail hub planned under Edinburgh airport, using the £1.1bn saved for other transport projects, such as improved rail journey times linking the north with the central belt. While there is a promise of improved buses, it is a plan that looks as if the SNP has reckoned its prospects in the capital are so poor that it can afford to take the political pain.
Even on a cracking good result, the SNP cannot expect to make much headway in the city, which is odd for a nationalist party in its national capital. Kenny MacAskill is the best placed challenger to beat Norman Murray, the departing former East Lothian Council leader, who won Labour's nomination to replace Susan Deacon in Edinburgh East and Musselburgh.
However, the former Health Minister, who chose to stand down after two terms, had a 6157 majority in 2003, which is a big ask for the Nationalist justice spokesman and, if he fails, he can expect to get in on his party's list.
Much harder fought, between Labour, the LibDems and the Tories, are four other city seats, featuring the toughest tussling between the executive's coalition parties. While Edinburgh West looks safely in the hands of LibDem Margaret Smith, Edinburgh Central sees LibDems hoping to unseat Labour minister Sarah Boyack. The LibDems also want Mike Crockart to defeat Labour's former minister Malcolm Chisholm in Edinburgh North and Leith.
In the nearest equivalent Westminster seat in 2005, the LibDems did serious damage to the majority of Labour's Mark Lazarowicz, with one of the opposition party's strongest results in Scotland. Having established themselves as main challenger to Labour in the north of the city, they hope Labour will again be weakened by the Iraq war.
Across Edinburgh, Labour is worried that it will be hard to bring out its middle class, public sector professional supporters because of Iraq and an illiberal crime crackdown aimed at Scotland heartlands represented by executive ministers. The unknown for all the parties is how votes might go from the many new housing developments, most notably the North and Leith constituency.
The battle is in the other direction in Edinburgh South, where Labour lost the seat in 2003 to LibDem Mike Pringle. Former Labour council leader Donald Anderson wants to remove Mr Pringle this time. The Tories would like to be contenders in South Edinburgh, which was once true blue, but instead their priority is to ensure David McLetchie secures the Pentlands seat he won from Labour's Iain Gray in 2003.
The former Tory leader will hope his high-profile problems with taxi receipts in 2005 will no longer weigh heavily with his electorate.
In West Lothian, Labour's Bristow Muldoon can be heartened by a Westminster by-election in 2005 that convincingly saw off any threat. But in the Linlithgow seat, which has long-standing pockets of SNP support, the threat from the Nationalists' education spokesman Fiona Hyslop is causing Labour concern. It has responded by targeting resources behind Deputy Health Minister Mary Mulligan.
On the list, Lord James Douglas-Hamilton has stood down, and his place on the Tory selection has been taken by Gavin Brown, also the Edinburgh South candidate. Margo MacDonald has local hero status as an independent. If things go badly for Labour at constituency level, top of their Lothian list is Lord George Foulkes, a former Whitehall minister, Ayrshire MP, and Hearts FC chairman There are two party leaders fighting for a place on the Holyrood list as well. Robin Harper should be confident of a return for the Greens, while Colin Fox, leading the Scottish Socialist Party, will be lucky to return.
